Significant Weather Weekly Outlook
There looks to be little risk for significant weather for at least most of this week as well as limited rainfall opportunities. An exception could be Thursday afternoon/evening when thunderstorms may develop ahead of a cold front. There looks to be increasing vertical wind shear late Thursday coupled with at least some instability, although the more significant instability and moisture axis may be centered to the southwest over the mid-Atlantic states. Timing of the approaching cold front makes a difference. The past few cold front passages across southern New England have been well after the peak of daytime heating and subsequently past the time of peak instability. There is not yet good model consensus on the timing of the cold front later in the week.
For those in coastal areas, we are in a period of spring tides. Spring tides happen when the moon and sun are aligned such that their gravitational pulls are combined (generally around the time of the new moon and full moon). Also, given the fact that the moon’s orbit is elliptical, its distance from the earth varies. The higher spring tides occur when the moon is also passing closer to the earth. The astronomical high tide will again be high tonight and Tuesday night. Combined with water levels running between a half foot and three-quarters foot above normal, spotty minor coastal flooding will be likely at the times of tonight’s and Tuesday night’s astronomical high tides along all southern New England shorelines. These high spring tides are often referred to as “King Tides” and have become more frequent over the years due to sea level rise.
Next Message
The next message will be the significant weather weekly outlook to be issued Monday June 22 unless the potential for severe weather later in the week becomes more apparent. In the meantime, given the typically localized nature of summer weather, I recommend that you monitor the latest forecasts (and any warnings/advisories) from the National Weather Service.
About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)
The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large. Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences. For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.
Message issued June 15, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member
