Significant Weather Outlook Updated
Not a whole lot has changed in the outlook issued Monday, but a few modifications seem worth noting.
Heat and Humidity
The Heat Advisory issued by the National Weather Service for most of southern New England remains in effect through Wednesday. This afternoon’s temperature has been tempered a little by a fairly thick smoke layer aloft from central Canada and northern Minnesota wildfires. Fortunately, the smoke is expected to remain mostly aloft. Wednesday is expected to feature temperatures again reaching into the 90s, although the humidity may begin to drop across at least northern MA as a weak cold front sags south.
Thunderstorm Risk
There is a small but nonzero risk of thunderstorms late tonight/early Wednesday ahead of that sagging cold front, mainly across northern MA. A capping inversion aloft is essentially keeping a lid on any storm development in southern New England this afternoon and evening. In contrast, there is an enhanced (3 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms (possibly a few being tornadic) across northern portions of VT, NH, and ME. Most of that activity will likely pass into the Gulf of Maine. Nevertheless, mid-level lapse rates are quite steep (especially for our area) later tonight into early Wednesday. This leaves a low risk for thunderstorms developing ahead of the cold front across northern MA, with Cape Ann potentially being the area most susceptible to any late night/early morning thunderstorms. Although this still looks like a low probability, any thunderstorms that should venture into southern New England could become strong with gusty winds and considerable lightning.
Rip Currents
A fairly persistent and long fetch southwesterly flow over the western Atlantic is producing fairly significant swells that are propagating toward south facing beaches. These swells are expected to produce a high rip current risk through Wednesday along south facing beaches. Swimmers should be extra aware/cautious, follow the advice of lifeguards, and be ready to swim parallel to shore if caught in a rip current.
This Weekend
A relatively robust upper trough will develop over Quebec late this week and bring cooler temperatures for the end of the workweek into the weekend. Pulses of energy rotating about this upper trough may produce a period or two of scattered showers/possible thunderstorms during the coming weekend. Timing of any showers remains uncertain. The consensus of last night’s model runs (both the legacy dynamic and AI versions) seemed to favor late Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. However, the latest model suite contains more disparate solutions. Given the type of pattern and inherent difficulty in resolving the timing of what meteorologists refer to as shortwave impulses, we probably won’t have a clearer picture until about Thursday.
Suggest that people with outdoor activities monitor latest forecasts and any statements/warnings from the National Weather Service regarding heat/humidity through Wednesday, risk of any thunderstorms late tonight/early Wednesday morning, the threat of rip currents along south facing beaches, and timing of potential showers/thunderstorms over the weekend.
Next Message
Unless there should be a significant increase in risk of severe weather later in the week, the next weather blog is expected to be the significant weather weekly outlook that is scheduled for Monday July 20. Please note: There will be no weather blog messages July 21 – 27 due to the author being on travel.
About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)
The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large. Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences. For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.
Message issued July 14, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member
