Weekly Significant Weather Outlook
Any area of concentrated or widespread hazardous weather seems unlikely at this time, although a couple rounds of showers/thunderstorms could produce isolated downpours and/or gusty winds tonight, Tuesday evening, and/or Wednesday as short-wave troughs pass around a persistent southeast U.S. ridge of high pressure. Model guidance is very disparate on location and timing of these areas of showers/thunderstorms. The air mass just to the southwest of New England (mid-Atlantic region from NYC south to Washington, DC) is more unstable, and multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible there through Wednesday evening.
An early look at the Labor Day weekend is fairly promising for southern New England with generally dry conditions except for perhaps a few spotty showers Saturday afternoon. One caveat, however, is that next weekend is still a number of days away and so this outlook is subject to change.
Tropics: A disturbance in the northwest Gulf is likely to organize into a tropical depression and possibly a tropical storm before making landfall somewhere along the upper Texas coast or southwest Louisiana coast. The main issue with this system will be the potential for torrential rain and flooding in the upper Texas coast region and southwest Louisiana later this week. In addition, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly may ultimately bring very heavy rainfall to at least southern Florida late this week. The risk of a regeneration to a tropical storm or hurricane appears quite low in at least the short term due to high vertical wind shear.
Models indicate that a disturbance in the eastern Pacific (west of Mexico) may develop into a tropical storm and then possibly further into at least a category 1 hurricane later this week. The track of this system remains very uncertain at this time. However, a few models track it close enough to the U.S. Southwest to potentially bring flooding rain to parts of southern CA, NV, and western AZ late this week. Portions of this area (especially AZ, UT, and southern NV) are presently being impacted by monsoonal heavy rain. The risk of moisture from a tropical cyclone affecting the Southwest U.S. is presently low but bears monitoring.
Next Message
The next weekly significant weather outlook is scheduled for Monday September 7. An additional weather blog may be issued later this week if a higher threat of severe thunderstorms or flooding rains should develop for southern New England or if a significant weather threat should develop for the Labor Day weekend.
About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)
The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large. Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences. For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.
Message issued August 31, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
BHOSC Advisory Board member
