Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible this Evening across Western Massachusetts and Connecticut
An approaching, albeit weakening, cold front will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A sea breeze boundary in eastern MA a short distance back from the coast may be a focus for a few thunderstorms and heavy downpours mid to late afternoon. Otherwise, another band or two of showers and thunderstorms may move into western MA and western CT this evening ahead of a weakening cold front. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over the Berkshires and western CT. However, the stronger wind shear seems to arrive after the instability diminishes (with most of it staying well north of our area). Any thunderstorms are likely to weaken soon after reaching western New England. One of the higher resolution models does show a band of marginally steep mid-level lapse rates moving across northern MA this evening, but diminishing surface-based instability and rather marginal vertical wind shear would seem to inhibit the severe potential.
Given the moist air mass, any thunderstorms could produce localized torrential downpours. And remember that all thunderstorms contain the risk of dangerous lightning (“when thunder roars, go indoors”).
One caveat is that forecasting the location and severity of thunderstorms can be difficult, since convection can be driven by rather subtle forces and often not well-resolved in forecast models. Thus, anyone with outdoor plans this evening may wish to monitor the radar as well as forecasts and any statements/warnings from the National Weather Service.
Warm temperatures will persist through this weekend but with lower humidity. It looks to be rain free Saturday and Sunday except for possible scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday night ahead of another weakening frontal boundary. Severe weather is not expected with any thunderstorms Sunday night.
Next Message
The next message will probably be the significant weather weekly outlook to be issued Monday June 15. In the meantime, given the localized and rapid development of any convective weather, monitor the latest forecasts and any warnings from the National Weather Service.
About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)
The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large. Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences. For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.
Message issued June 12, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member
