Significant Weather Outlook: Monday, February 16, 2026 3 PM
Significant Weather Weekly Outlook
This looks to be an interesting and challenging week from a forecast perspective and may or may not result in interesting weather for southern New England. Taking a look at the larger (i.e., synoptic) picture at the mid tropospheric level (500 mb pressure level), a series of short wavelength troughs flow through and become ejected east from a large quasi-stationary trough along the U.S. west coast this week. An omega type high pressure block north of the Great Lakes causes the series of energy being ejected out of the large west coast trough to be shunted along a quasi-stationary front lying over or near southern New England. North of this frontal boundary or thermal ribbon any precipitation will fall as snow and south of the boundary as rain showers. The challenge is what will be the precise location of this frontal boundary as surface low pressure areas or waves pass along it. The various global and regional computer models are not in agreement on the placement of this boundary. A cold high pressure area centered just east of Hudson Bay with an extension toward southeast Quebec suggest that this boundary may tend to slip a little southward during the course of this week and lead to one or two wintry weather events for southern New England. Will highlight a couple of possible such events below.
Wednesday Afternoon/Night
One of those packets of energy being ejected out of the large western trough will slide to the southeast across southern New England late Wednesday afternoon and night. At the surface, a weak low pressure area will slide southeast along the surface frontal boundary probably initially lying across southern New England and then probably sagging to just south of New England. This suggests that precipitation may start as rain or mixed rain/snow (except snow over the higher elevations of western and northern MA but change to snow during Wednesday night. There is much uncertainty in the snowfall forecast due to uncertainty in the precipitation type because of uncertainty in the precise location of that quasi-stationary frontal boundary. An initial guestimate is for 2 to 5 inches over the Berkshires and northern MA, 1 to 3 inches along the Mass Pike corridor from Springfield to Worcester to Boston and perhaps up to an inch or so across CT, RI, and southeast MA (including the Cape and Islands). Keep in mind that there is much uncertainty in this forecast, and these estimates are subject to considerable change in either direction.
Weekend
The global computer models depict a wide spectrum with respect to timing, precipitation type, and intensity for this weekend. Most but not all models indicate the potential for a light to moderate snowfall event for southern New England around the Friday night time frame. The Canadian model, however, depicts a coastal low pressure producing significant snowfall across southern New England Saturday night, while the GFS and UKMET models depict a fairly intense coastal storm with major snowfall across some or most of southern New England Sunday night into Monday. Thus, it looks like there will likely be one or two systems that impact southern New England with potential wintry weather this weekend, but there’s too much uncertainty in the evolution of the larger scale weather pattern to communicate any specificity whatsoever. Will issue message blogs if it looks like we may be impacted by one or more significant weather this weekend.
Other – Western United States
A major three-day storm will produce 3 to 5 feet of snow over the high Sierra in CA and NV, 1 to 3 feet about Lake Tahoe, and even a half foot or so in some of the northeast CA and western NV valleys including Reno itself by Wednesday. As much as 10 to 20 inches may fall this week over the higher terrain of northwest CA and southwest OR. High travel impacts should be expected across a large portion of the West early to mid-week.
Next Message
Will continue to monitor the future evolution of our weather pattern for southern New England this week and will provide blog updates upon the potential for any significant weather.
About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant. In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted. It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information. This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)
The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large. Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences. For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.
Message issued February 16, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member
