Weekly Significant Weather Outlook
Hazardous weather (beyond perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm) appears unlikely in southern New England this week. A passing upper-level short wave trough or two may be embedded in a broad upper trough that remains centered over eastern Canada. One such upper-level short wave trough accompanied by a weak surface cold front may trigger some showers late Thursday/early Friday. Although that is the current model consensus, we could see some change in timing as we get closer to that time frame. Otherwise, most of this coming week and next weekend look to be mainly dry with moderate humidity for August.
Elsewhere, a heat dome is expected to persist across most of the Southwest U.S., Intermountain West, and Southern Plains. Strong upper-level high pressure with a ridge axis from the four corners region in the Southwest to the OK/TX border area is expected to persist throughout this week and probably beyond. This pattern will cause extremely hot temperatures to persist and areas of high wildfire danger in much of that region.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a couple of areas in the tropics for possible development. An area of showers/thunderstorms a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda may become better organized as it moves northward and possibly develop into a short-lived tropical depression or storm well offshore of the U.S. east coast this week. If this were to happen, the only impact for southern New England might be increased swell activity across the coastal waters later in the week into the weekend with possibly some elevated rip current risk. The second area of interest is in the eastern tropical Atlantic where a fairly well-defined tropical wave was moving off the west African coast. Conditions may be conducive enough for this system to develop into a tropical depression later this week. It remains to be seen if this system will be impacted by vertical wind shear induced by El Nino as it moves further west through the tropical central Atlantic.
Next Message
The next message will probably be the weekly significant weather outlook scheduled for Monday August 31.
About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)
The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large. Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences. For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.
Message issued August 24, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member
