Weather Update
Southern New England Weather Update
An upper trough interacting with a nearly stalled warm front to our southwest will result in showers into this afternoon. A few of the showers could be heavy enough for spotty urban or poor drainage flooding. The showers should taper off west to east late this afternoon, although there may be some lingering light showers or drizzle into this evening. Rainfall amounts will generally be around a half inch, although there may be a few pockets of 1 to 2 inches, mainly in portions of the Berkshires and western CT. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to our southwest across the mid-Atlantic states, including New York City to Washington, DC where the air mass exhibits greater instability. At least most of Wednesday will likely be dry (albeit still cloudy) across southern New England as high pressure centered over the Maritimes prevails, but more showers and scattered thunderstorms are likely Wednesday night and Thursday. A few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon could be strong with gusty winds ahead of a cold front.
The Labor Day weekend is still looking to be dry (other than possibly a spot afternoon sprinkle or shower) and probably a bit cooler than normal with low humidity.
Tropics Update
Tropical Storm Edouard in the northwest Gulf will continue to intensify over an environment of warm water and weak vertical wind shear before making landfall this afternoon along the upper Texas coast. Edouard may intensify to near hurricane force just prior to landfall. A storm surge may produce flooding of 3 to 5 feet above ground level on vulnerable portions of the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast, where scattered wind damage should also be expected. The greatest impact, however, is likely to be heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Texas and adjacent southwest Louisiana. Fresh water flooding is likely in poor drainage areas and some urban areas including portions of metro Houston.
In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Marie off the southwest Mexico coast is expected to intensify into a category 1 or 2 hurricane as it moves northwest. Most model guidance eventually turns Marie to the west northwest and into the open Pacific. There is a subset of models, however, that depicts a more northerly track that would take Marie (or its remnants) close to or even into the southwest U.S. A factor in the eventual track will be the timing and amplitude of a mid-latitude trough approaching the U.S. west coast from the northeast Pacific. Although the more likely outcome is for Marie to remain well offshore, this storm should continue to be watched closely as any incursion of Marie’s moisture into the southwest U.S. (southern CA, AZ, NV, UT) could be very problematic in addition to the monsoon pattern in place across that region.
Next Message
The next weekly significant weather outlook is scheduled for Monday September 7. Additional weather blogs may be issued if Edouard or any other tropical system should pose a still more serious threat for the U.S. or if a significant severe weather threat should develop for southern New England.
About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)
The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large. Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences. For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.
Message issued September 1, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
BHOSC Advisory Group member
