Significant Weather Weekly Outlook
At this time, hazardous weather looks to be unlikely across southern New England for this week. Given a Bermuda high pressure area well to our southeast and a trough over Quebec, we will likely experience a down-sloping and overland westerly flow, which will bring warm temperatures into southern New England through mid-week. Thereafter, a pattern change will likely result in potentially a deep trough late in the week over southeast Canada that will extend over or near New England while a large “omega” type ridge builds over southern Canada. The more recent operational models depict a closed upper low and surface low passing through southern New England late Friday into Saturday from north to south. This will likely result in cooler temperatures and a risk of showers in the Friday or Saturday time frame. How much rain results from this pattern is uncertain this far ahead. Should this pattern evolve similar to current model projections, it’s possible a few showers may contain small hail due to especially cold temperatures aloft. Keep in mind that we may see a different evolution by the time we get to the end of the week. The rest of this message will take a look at the coming hurricane season.
Hurricane Season Outlook
The hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin begins June 1, although most hurricane activity usually occurs August through early October. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (with input from other NOAA offices) issued its 2026 hurricane season outlook on May 21. More or less in concert with the hurricane seasonal outlooks from other entities, the NOAA prediction indicates hurricane activity this coming season to likely be below normal. This is in large part as a consequence of an expected El Nino condition that will be strengthening during the period of the 2026 hurricane season. In fact, there are indications that the coming El Nino could be significantly stronger than average. An El Nino event typically results in warmer than average water temperatures in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean and in turn greater convection (i.e., showers and thunderstorms) in that region. The convection further acts to strengthen the subtropical jet aloft, which in turn results in relatively high vertical wind shear in the main development region for hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. That high vertical wind shear tends to disrupt hurricane formation by shearing incipient storms apart.
There are other factors that help determine hurricane development in the tropical Atlantic. These include sea surface temperatures. Warmer than average sea surface temperatures may counteract to some extent the inhibiting influence of hurricane development by El Nino. We have seen this play out in prior years. Another factor can be the strength and positioning of the West African monsoon. The 2026 West African monsoon may be displaced further north and inland than average. This could result in disturbances passing off the African west coast to entrain dry air, which would tend to inhibit development. Still another factor could be the phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (or MJO) and as to whether or not it’s inducing broad upward motion or broad downward motion. This is something that’s fairly hard to predict far in advance. We have also seen in some years the prevalence of Saharian dust acting to suppress hurricane formation, but this, too, is difficult to predict much ahead of time. And then, there’s still the possibility of tropical cyclones forming along the periphery or outside of the main development region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea in regions of less vertical wind shear.
Given all of these factors, it looks like a below normal level of hurricane activity is favored this year for the Atlantic basin. The NOAA outlook calls for a 55% chance of a below normal season, a 35% chance of a near normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above normal season. This equates to a forecast of 8 to 14 named storms (winds 39 mph or higher), 3 to 6 hurricanes (winds 74 mph or higher), and 1 to 3 major hurricanes (category 3 or greater or winds of 111 mph or higher). Average storm totals for a hurricane season are 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Yet, there remains some degree of uncertainty (e.g. influence of warmer than average sea surface temperatures, the specific characteristics of this year’s west African monsoon, the shorter-term weather pattern when a tropical disturbance may be trying to develop, etc.).
Keep in mind that just one landfalling major hurricane along a vulnerable portion of the U.S. coastline could result in a very high impact event and result in this season being remembered as high impact even if the overall level of hurricane activity is low. Hurricane Andrew, a devastating category 5 storm that hit south Forida in 1992, is such an example. Andrew was one of only ten named storms and the only major hurricane in that season. Also, the impact of a tropical cyclone is not necessarily correlated to wind intensity. For example, Hurricane Sandy was a category 1 hurricane undergoing extratropical transition but had a very significant impact from its storm surge given its size and trajectory. There have also been very high impacts from tropical storms (winds below hurricane force) due to excessive rainfall rates and fresh water flooding. For example, Tropical Storm Diane in 1955 caused devastating stream and river flooding throughout much of southern New England. Thus, all people who live in an area that could be impacted by the storm surge, wind, and/or freshwater flooding from a hurricane should make sure they have a preparedness plan in place. The cliché of “all it takes is one” applies.
Will continue to monitor the development of the expected El Nino. Although other factors often mask the influence of El Nino on New England weather, El Nino has often had major impacts for other parts of this country as well as other locations throughout the world. Will take a closer look at El Nino and its potential impact on the 2026-2027 winter in a future blog.
Next Message
Unless a risk for severe weather should arise, the next message will probably be the significant weather outlook for the following week to be issued Monday June 1.
About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)
The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large. Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences. For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.
Message issued May 25, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member
