Significant Weather Blog: Saturday, January 31, 2026 2 PM

Storm Projected to Pass Farther Offshore

Latest trends in model guidance (initiated with data from 7 AM EST (1200 UTC or 12Z) this morning) continue to show a trend toward a more offshore track.   The forecast snow amounts in this message reflects that trend.  Much of the snow that does fall across southeast MA including much of the Cape and Martha’s Vineyard may have as much to do with ocean effect processes as the main precipitation shield of the storm.  There still looks to be some shoreline impacts to the Cape and Islands for the Sunday morning high tide and to a little lesser extent for the Sunday late evening and Monday midday high tides.

Discussion

As this blog is being written, the storm is forming off the coast of the Carolinas with snow falling across much of the Carolinas and northeast Georgia.  On the backside, there even looks to be an area of light snow showers or flurries in southern Alabama heading to the Florida panhandle and Tallahassee area.  The storm now forming off the Carolinas will intensify rapidly and become quite large.  As noted in yesterday’s blog, the associated high amplitude upper trough remains more positively to neutrally tilted and slow to cut off.  That and other factors at play (such as the lack of a strong downstream ridge and the influence of an upstream short-wave trough embedded in the northern jet stream) will allow the surface low center to quickly progress ENE well offshore of southern New England, albeit just close enough to brush the Cape and Islands.

Another process at play looks to be ocean effect snow bands over the Cape and Islands as well as Plymouth County and perhaps even a portion of eastern Norfolk County (e.g. Weymouth, Cohasset).  We are already seeing some ocean effect flurries on the Cape, and this will probably become more prevalent tonight into Sunday.  The actual northwest edge of the storm’s precipitation shield may not venture much farther northwest than the outer Cape and Nantucket but will be hard to locate due to the embedded ocean effect snow bands.

A northeast wind gusting to between 40 and 45 mph over the Cape and Islands will cause blowing snow and periods of low visibility.  Snow amounts now look to be on the order of 2 to 4 inches across the Cape and Islands (with a chance of 4 to 5 inches over Nantucket).  Ocean effect snow bands (being forecast by the higher resolution models and even hinted by the global models) may produce 1 to 3 inches of snow across Plymouth County and parts of eastern Norfolk County (possibly including the Blue Hill Observatory itself).  It’s doubtful if more than a coating to a half inch of snow will fall as far northwest as the Boston to Providence I-95 corridor.

Since this storm is expected to have an especially large wind field of gale to storm force winds, there will likely be some shoreline impacts, mainly on ocean exposed Cape, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard beaches.  Some minor coastal flooding looks likely, especially for Nantucket Harbor.  Beach erosion and minor coastal flooding (at least for Nantucket Harbor and portions of the bay side of the Cape) may occur during the Sunday morning, Sunday late evening, and Monday midday high tides.  Even though it looks like the storm will pass a little farther offshore, it also appears to be more progressive and will allow a somewhat sooner increase in surge and waves for the astronomically high Sunday morning high tide.  Minor coastal flooding and some beach erosion may occur as well for the Sunday late evening high tide when waves and surge are at their highest, but charactered by a lower astronomical tide.  The Monday midday astronomical high tide is comparable to the Sunday morning high tide, but wind, waves, and surge should be decreasing by then.  Given some offsetting factors, all three high tide cycles (Sunday morning, Sunday late evening, and Monday midday) will probably feature some minor coastal flooding and some beach erosion but nothing too extreme given the rapid progression and offshore track of the storm.  Will breakdown projected impacts in the Forecast and Impacts section.

Forecast and Impacts

Ocean effect snow will spread across the Cape and Islands this evening as well as adjacent Plymouth County in southeast Massachusetts. The steadiest snow will likely fall during the day Sunday into Sunday evening across the Cape and Islands.  Projected snowfall is for 2 to 4 inches across the Cape and Islands (possibly 4 to 5 inches on Nantucket) and southeastern Plymouth County.  To the northwest, 1 to 3 inches may fall across the rest of Plymouth County and eastern Norfolk County with possibly a coating to a half inch as far northwest as the Boston to Providence corridor.  Northeast wind gusts between 40 and 45 mph will cause some blowing and drifting of snow on the Cape and Islands with periods of low visibility.  Flurries or no snow at all is expected northwest of the Boston to Providence corridor.

As far as shoreline impacts, the focus is on three high tide cycles as described below:

Sunday Morning High Tide:

• Projected storm surge near 2 feet for Cape and Islands
• Waves 12 to 15 feet off Cape Cod and Nantucket (8 to 10 feet Mass Bay)
• Astronomical high tide of 4.0 feet MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water) at Nantucket
• Minor coastal flooding very likely at Nantucket Harbor with a storm tide that may approach 6 feet MLLW
• Some beach erosion likely ocean exposed Cape, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard shorelines
• Spotty minor coastal flooding and beach erosion possible elsewhere along MA east coast (including bay side of the Cape)

Sunday Late Evening High Tide

• Projected storm surge of around 2 feet for Cape and Islands
• Waves 15 to 18 feet off Cape Cod and Nantucket (10 to 12 feet Mass Bay)
• Astronomical high tide of 2.7 feet MLLW at Nantucket
• Minor coastal flooding likely at Nantucket Harbor
• Beach erosion likely ocean exposed Cape, Nantucket, and Vineyard shorelines
• Spotty minor coastal flooding/splashover and beach erosion possible elsewhere along MA east coast

Monday Midday High Tide

• Projected storm surge of around 1.5 feet for Cape and Islands (but decreasing)
• Waves 12 to 15 feet off Cape Cod and Nantucket (around 10 feet Mass Bay)
• Astronomical high tide of 3.9 feet MLLW at Nantucket
• Minor coastal flooding likely at Nantucket Harbor
• Some beach erosion likely on the Cape (both ocean and bay sides), Nantucket, and Vineyard shorelines
• Spotty minor beach erosion and splashover possible along most vulnerable portions elsewhere along the MA east coast

For people with family, friends, or property in southeast Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, or even northeast Georgia, this storm will likely have a much more sizable impact with a broad swath of 6 to 12 inches of snow across eastern NC and southeast VA surrounded by 3 to 6 inches of snow across much of western NC, SC, and northeast GA.  In addition, there will be high winds, significant beach erosion, and coastal flooding along the NC coastline (especially the NC Outer Banks).  Blizzard conditions are possible over portions of eastern NC.

Next Message

This will probably be the final message on this storm.  Will issue a significant weather outlook for next week on Monday.

About this Blog and Disclaimer

The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary.  For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box.  For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.

A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant.  In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted.  It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information.  This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).

The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author.  Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.

Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)

The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large.  Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences.  For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.

Message issued January 31, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member