Significant Weather Blog: Friday, January 30, 2026, 2 PM

Coastal Storm to Impact the Cape and Islands Sunday and Sunday Night

Minimal to No Impacts Along and Northwest of the I-95 Boston to Providence Corridor

Latest trends in model guidance (initiated with data from 7 AM EST [1200 UTC or 12Z] this morning) suggest that a large and intense coastal storm will form off of the North Carolina coast and then move offshore but close enough to swipe Cape Cod and the Islands.  The storm should be far enough offshore, however, for little or no impact along and northwest of the Boston to Providence corridor.  There is still some lingering uncertainty as to the extent of impact for Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket, but at least several inches are likely.

Discussion

Although the storm to form off the Carolinas is expected to intensify rapidly and become quite large, the associated high amplitude upper trough remains more positively to neutrally tilted and slow to cut off.  Other factors at play may be the lack of a strong downstream ridge and the influence of an upstream short-wave trough embedded in the northern jet stream.  This allows the surface low center to progress ENE well offshore of southern New England, albeit close enough to give the Cape and Islands a swipe.

The 12Z (1200 UTC) NAM model based on 7 AM data did trend a little closer to the coast, but the entire suite of 12Z global models either showed little change in track or a slightly more offshore track.  Am inclined to consider the NAM model somewhat of an outlier, although it has higher resolution than the global models and constitutes a caution light to be prepared for some variation in future model projections.

Since this storm is expected to have an especially large wind field of gale to storm force winds, there will likely be some shoreline impacts, mainly on ocean exposed Cape, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard beaches.  Some minor coastal flooding looks likely, especially for Nantucket Harbor.  Beach erosion and minor coastal flooding (at least for Nantucket Harbor) may occur during the Sunday morning, Sunday late evening, and Monday midday high tides.  Both the Sunday morning and Monday morning astronomical high tides are relatively high.  However, the peak storm surge and wave action are expected to occur on approach to the lower astronomical high tide Sunday evening.  Thus, the timing will mitigate the coastline impacts to some extent.  Will breakdown projected impacts in the Forecast and Impacts section.

There remains some uncertainty on the northwest edge of significant precipitation and hence just how much snow will fall over the Cape and Islands.  Best guestimate at this point would be for moderate amounts (e.g. 3 to 6 inches Cape/Martha’s Vineyard and 4 to 8 inches Nantucket) but could still be more or less.  Potentially 2 to 4 inches may fall across southern Plymouth County and perhaps 1 to 3 inches across the rest of Plymouth County, possibly aided by some ocean effect snow showers.  Since the wind field will likely cover the Cape and Islands with 40 to 50+ mph gusts, there could be considerable blowing snow and reduced visibility for a time, even if the snow amounts turn out to be not all that impressive.

Forecast and Impacts

Snow Sunday and Sunday night may accumulate 3 to 6 inches across the Cape and Martha’s Vineyard and 4 to 8 inches on Nantucket.  Northeast winds will likely gust between 40 and 50 mph across the Cape and Martha’s Vineyard and possibly peak between 50 and 55 mph over Nantucket.  The combination of falling and blowing snow will likely reduce visibility and make driving treacherous for a time late Sunday morning into Sunday evening.  Conditions may reach blizzard criteria for several hours on Nantucket Sunday afternoon and evening where travel may be very difficult for a time in near whiteout conditions.  Lesser amounts of snow amounting to 1 to 3 inches may fall across southern and eastern Plymouth County except possibly 3 to 4 inches in southern Plymouth County near the Cape Cod Canal.  A coating to an inch of snow is possible as far northwest as the Boston to Providence corridor.  Flurries or no snow at all is expected northwest of the Boston to Providence corridor.

As far as shoreline impacts, the focus is on three high tide cycles as described below:

Sunday Morning High Tide:

• Projected storm surge of 1.5 to 2 feet for Cape and Islands
• Waves 12 to 15 feet off Cape Cod and Nantucket (10 to 12 feet Mass Bay)
• Astronomical high tide of 4.0 feet MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water) at Nantucket
• Minor coastal flooding very likely at Nantucket Harbor
• Some beach erosion likely ocean exposed Cape, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard shorelines
• Pockets of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion possible elsewhere along MA east coast

Sunday Late Evening High Tide

• Projected storm surge of 2 to 2.5 feet for Cape and Islands
• Waves around 20 feet off Cape Cod and Nantucket (12 to 15 feet Mass Bay)
• Astronomical high tide of 2.7 feet MLLW at Nantucket
• Minor coastal flooding likely at Nantucket Harbor
• Beach erosion likely ocean exposed Cape, Nantucket, and Vineyard shorelines
• Spotty minor coastal flooding/splashover and beach erosion possible elsewhere along MA east coast

Monday Morning High Tide

• Projected storm surge of around 1.5 feet for Cape and Islands (but decreasing)
• Waves 12 to 15 feet off Cape Cod and Nantucket (around 10 feet Mass Bay)
• Astronomical high tide of 3.9 feet MLLW at Nantucket
• Minor coastal flooding likely at Nantucket Harbor
• Some beach erosion likely on the Cape (both ocean and bay sides), Nantucket, and Vineyard shorelines
• Spotty minor beach erosion and splashover possible along most vulnerable portions elsewhere along the MA east coast

For people with family, friends, or property in southeast Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, or even northeast Georgia, this storm will likely have a much more sizable impact with a broad swath of 6 to 12 inches of snow across eastern NC and southeast VA surrounded by 3 to 6 inches of snow across much of western NC, SC, and northeast GA.  In addition, there will be high winds, significant beach erosion, and coastal flooding along the NC coastline (especially the NC Outer Banks).  Blizzard conditions are possible over portions of eastern NC.

Next Message

Since there are still some fluctuations taking place in model storm track projections, will likely need to issue an update on Saturday.

About this Blog and Disclaimer

The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary.  For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box.  For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.

A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant.  In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted.  It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information.  This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).

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Message issued January 30, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member