Significant Weather Blog: Friday, January 23, 2026, 12 PM
Major Snow Storm Expected for Southern New England
Same Storm System Will Impact Much of the Eastern United States with Snow and Ice
Heavy snow will likely impact all of southern New England Sunday afternoon and night with lingering accumulating snow at lesser intensity on Monday. Confidence is high that nearly all of southern New England will receive 1 to 2 feet of snow. The precipitation looks to be all snow except sleet may mix with the snow over the very immediate south coast and the Cape and Islands (with Nantucket possibly changing over to sleet and rain for a time early Monday morning). This same storm will also leave very broad swaths of heavy snow and/or damaging ice across a large portion of the country from New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma through the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley across the mid-South to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions. Ahead of the storm will be the coldest temperatures of the season (at least thus far) behind an arctic cold front that passes through tonight.
Extraordinary Cold Temperatures this Weekend
A piece of the polar vortex will break off and traverse Ontario and southern Quebec this weekend and unleash an arctic air mass into our region. Temperatures will plummet to around zero to 5 above late tonight. Temperatures will struggle to go beyond 10 to 15 degrees Saturday. Combined with strong northwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph, expect wind chills to 15 below except likely to 25 below over the higher terrain (especially in the Berkshires where an Extreme Cold Warning has been issued by the National Weather Service) tonight and Saturday. Cold temperatures will persist into next week.
Major Snow Storm Sunday into Monday for All of Southern New England
The various computer models have converged on a surface low track that passes near the 40N latitude and 70W longitude “benchmark.” This is true of the operational models (with the exception of the recent Canadian model being inside the benchmark) and also supported by the vast majority of their ensemble members. This is not expected to be a bombogenesis event with very low central pressures and very high winds. However, this looks to be an ideal set up for overrunning snow as Gulf moisture overrides an antecedent arctic air mass along with some assistance from jet dynamics. For those familiar with the terms, there will likely be a cold conveyor belt of moist easterly winds in the low to mid-levels and a very robust warm moist southerly conveyor belt at mid to high levels. The highest snow rates (probably at least 1 to 2 inches per hour) are expected Sunday afternoon and night. Due to a fairly robust trailing short wave upper trough embedded in the northern jet stream, bands of light to moderate snow may persist through most of the day Monday and add to the accumulation. At the surface, the low pressure center may take on an elongated east-west configuration or perhaps exhibit an inverted trough to the west on Monday due to the interaction with the approaching upper-level trough. The result would be continued low level moisture convergence in addition to upward motion induced by the upper-level dynamics with areas of light to moderate snow persisting through much of Monday.
With the antecedent cold arctic air in place, the precipitation should be in the form of snow. A possible exception could be the New England south coast including the Cape and Islands where a protruding warm layer aloft (about 8 to 10 thousand feet) could cause the snow to mix with or change to sleet but not until substantial snow falls. There is a chance that precipitation on Nantucket could even go over to sleet and rain for a time early Monday morning. The overnight regional higher resolution NAM model did appear to be more aggressive with the northward intrusion of the mid level warm layer, but the more recent model initiated at 7 AM has backed away some with a somewhat colder solution. High snow to liquid ratios may help to increase accumulations (i.e., fluff factor) especially over interior southern New England. Over the Cape and Islands, one would expect a lower snow to liquid ratio and a little more compression of the snow. There will likely be some mesoscale banding which could feature locally enhanced snowfall rates but these are not possible to identify this far out.
Timing: Although there remain some timing differences in the models, light snow will likely start during Sunday morning and become heavy in most areas by early or mid-afternoon. The snow will linger into Monday at lesser intensity but may not totally taper off until Monday evening in most areas.
Amounts: Expect generally one to two feet across nearly all of southern New England. Along the south coast, Cape Cod, Block Island, and Martha’s Vineyard, anticipate 10 to 15 inches with somewhat lower snow to liquid ratios and possibly some sleet mixing in. For Nantucket, anticipate 8 to 12 inches given a higher likelihood of some mixed precipitation there. Think that greater Boston (especially suburbs to the southwest, west, and northwest) may be toward the upper portion of the range with 16 to 24 inches. Looks like 8 to 14 inches for New York City where there might be a little sleet that mixes with the snow later in the storm. As details become a little clearer with the higher resolution models, may adjust these amounts some, but confidence is now high on a big snowstorm for essentially all of southern New England.
Impact: This storm will have major ground and air travel impacts across southern New England Sunday into Monday. Travel will likely be especially difficult Sunday afternoon and night. Airlines will likely need some recovery time. People are encouraged to adjust plans as necessary.
Large Winter Storm Will Impact Much of the Eastern United States this Weekend
Will probably just focus on southern New England in future messages on this storm. This section reinforces how this storm will impact a huge area.
A feature of this storm will be its scope with high impacts from Texas and Oklahoma through the mid-South, entire Appalachian chain, Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic region, and the Northeast as a surface low pressure system traverses along a boundary between arctic air to the north and tropical moist air to the south. Across portions of CO and NM, OK, eastern KS, MO, northern AR, KY, OH, northern VA, WVA, MD, PA, NJ, NY, and New England heavy snow will likely be the main concern. Further south, damaging ice will be a concern and likely include portions of southeast NM, TX, southern/central AR, northern LA, northwest MS, northern AL, TN, northern GA, SC, NC, and southern VA. Portions of TN, KY, southern WVA, central VA, southern MD, DL, and southern NJ may have a substantial mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. There could be some shifting north or south of the heavy snow and damaging ice areas due to variations in the projected storm track.
This storm will likely produce heavy snow all along the I-95 corridor from Washington, DC to New York City to Boston, although sleet and possibly some freezing rain may mix with the snow from Washington, DC to New York City but not before at least 6 to 10 inches of accumulation.
The overriding message is that this storm will have a very broad impact across much of the eastern United States this weekend into early next week. Very widespread ground and air travel delays should be expected. The most serious impact from this storm will likely be the result of a large swath of damaging ice and resulting power outages from Texas to the Carolinas (including portions of the South such as LA, AR, MS, northern AL, TN, and northern GA).
For up-to-date information from the National Weather Service on any specific areas of the country, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
Next Message
Will continue to monitor this developing winter storm and provide updates given any significant changes.
About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant. In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted. It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information. This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)
The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large. Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences. For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.
Message issued January 23, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member
