Isaias and Rachel
Isaias
Isaias has intensified into a major hurricane (Category 3 status). Some further intensification seems likely before the hurricane encounters stronger vertical wind shear by late this afternoon or evening. Isaias will likely make landfall in the western portion of Florida’s panhandle tonight as a strong and dangerous Category 2 hurricane (perhaps on the cusp of a major Category 3 hurricane), depending upon how close Isaias gets to the coast before encountering the shear. After landfall, Isaias will weaken more rapidly but still probably be of tropical storm strength into northern Alabama. This is a dangerous hurricane and Hurricane Warnings remain in effect from Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County line in FL, including Mobile, Pensacola, and Panama City.
As of Friday morning, Isaias was moving to the NNE and expected to turn more toward due north due to the influence of a sharpening upper-level trough to its west and a building ridge to its east. Isaias will likely make landfall tonight along the west portion of Florida’s panhandle, possibly near or a little east of Pensacola. It’s important, however, not to focus on a probable landfall location since impacts from the hurricane will extend far from the center. All coastal areas from southeast LA to the Big Bend region of FL should be prepared for wind, storm surge, and heavy rain impacts from Isaias.
Tropical Storm force winds will be reaching the coastline from the mouth of the Mississippi River in southeast LA to Apalachicola, FL early to mid-afternoon. Conditions will continue to deteriorate late this afternoon into tonight along this stretch of coastline with life-threatening storm surge, hurricane force winds, and flash flood causing rains.
Storm surge/coastal flooding: Life threatening storm surge up to around 9 feet is likely from near Gulf Shores, AL to Indian Pass, FL (near Apalachicola, FL). This includes the shorelines of Pensacola and Panama Beach. Although not the only hazard, the storm surge coastal flooding is often responsible for the most fatalities from a hurricane. Hopefully, all residents and visitors along vulnerable sections of the Florida panhandle shoreline have safely evacuated by now.
Damaging winds: Widespread wind damage is expected to occur along coastal Alabama and Florida panhandle communities. Note that the wind field of Isaias will likely expand as it begins to interact with the upper-level trough. In addition, Isaias (even while weakening and transitioning to post tropical) will bring damaging wind gusts well inland to locations in northern Alabama, northern Georgia, and northeast Mississippi, if not even possibly into portions of Tennessee. Long duration power outages are possible, especially across much of the FL panhandle and portions of southern AL and southwest GA.
Heavy Rain/Flash Flooding: Moisture-laden Isaias will likely dump rainfall of 5 to 10 inches across much of the Florida panhandle as well as portions of southern Alabama and southwest Georgia. As much as 3 to 6 inches of rain will fall across much of the Southeast United States (including the Carolinas and southern Appalachians). This is likely to result in areas of flash flooding as well as some river flooding.
Tornadoes: There is a risk of short track tornadoes that produce concentrated damage across the Florida panhandle, southwest Georgia, and southeast Alabama. These are most likely to occur in the forward northeast quadrant of the storm.
Southern New England: Isaias will move north into Tennessee as a post tropical storm and merge with an extratropical system moving west to east. The surface low containing moisture from Isaias will move east toward the mid-Atlantic coast and pass south of New England. Rain is likely across southern New England late Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. The heaviest rain will likely be along the CT, RI, and MA south coast.
Rachel
Rachel has made its turn to the northeast and will likely make landfall along the northern Baja California peninsula, not far from the California border, Saturday night or early Sunday morning. Although Rachel will encounter increasing vertical shear from a fairly large amplitude upper-level trough, that same trough may provide some additional dynamical forcing to keep Rachel at tropical storm strength, even if it is in the process of transitioning to a post tropical system. The storm, even if transitioning to post tropical, will bring areas of heavy rain (with a flash flood risk) and tropical storm force wind gusts to southern California and other portions of the Southwest United States (including western AZ and southern NV).
Next Message
This will likely be the last message on Isaias and probably Rachael as well. For more specific and most up to date information, interests should refer to the latest Advisories from the National Hurricane Center and applicable local National Weather Service forecasts/warnings for these storms.
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Message issued October 9, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Advisory Council member
