Significant Weather Blog: Friday, November 28, 2025 6 PM

Potential Winter Storm for Portions of Interior Southern New England

Tuesday Afternoon and Night

Ingredients appear to be coming together for a potential winter storm across portions of southern New England for Tuesday afternoon and night.  First, will take a look at travel weather for Sunday and then will take a closer look at Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Sunday Travel Weather

The most significant feature will be a storm system that will be passing through the Great Lakes Saturday and Saturday night.  Snow should be winding down across the Great Lakes Sunday morning except lake effect snow bands may again set up across western New York Sunday into Sunday evening.  Rain showers are likely Sunday afternoon and evening across southern New England and snow or mixed rain/snow across northern New England where travel delays are possible.  Air travel delays may linger into Sunday across airports in the Great Lakes including Chicago, Detroit, and Buffalo.  Some air travel delays are possible later Sunday across northern New England including Burlington and Portland airports.  Showers, some possibly heavy, may persist across the Gulf coast from Texas to Louisiana.  The rain may cause a few air travel delays at Houston and New Orleans on Sunday.  An upper-level trough of low pressure may cause some snow across the central Rockies with the potential for some delays at Utah (including Salt Lake City) and western Colorado airports on Sunday.  There may be some travel impact to/from the Denver airport Sunday evening.  It is that upper trough which will play a role in southern New England Weather Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Potential Winter Storm

An upper short-wave trough and surface low pressure center will move from the southern plains/lower Mississippi Valley to near or a little southeast of Cape Cod by Tuesday night.  There remains (as one might expect this far out) some variability in track and intensity of the surface low pressure center among the various global models and their ensembles.  Although there remain a few ensemble runs that take the system well offshore, there has been an increasing number of ensembles (along with the operational models) that bring the low pressure center close enough for a significant precipitation event across southern New England.  The latest ECMWF and Canadian models take the surface low pressure center near or even a tad southeast of the 40N70W “benchmark.”  The latest GFS operational run, however, brings the surface low center over southern New England.  This more northern scenario would result in mostly rain in southern New England with snow confined mainly to central and northern New England.

The big question looks to be precipitation type.  Although cold air looks to be in place aloft, relatively mild ocean temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50 will likely keep the boundary layer (lowest one thousand feet or so) warm enough for rain or mixed rain and wet snow along the coastal plain with little or no snow accumulation even if the storm track is a little offshore.   There is also fairly high confidence of just rain over the Cape and Islands.  Inland the outlook becomes more complicated with likely an elevation component and a high sensitivity to the exact track of the surface low pressure center.  Some snow accumulation looks to be possible northwest of the I-95 corridor (including Metro West to the Worcester area), there may even in this area be enough maritime influence for a rain/snow mix for much of the storm.  There is higher confidence of significant snow accumulation north and west of Worcester, especially at the higher elevations.  Once within 72 hours of the event, the higher resolution regional models will be in range and may provide a better clue for the lower level temperature profile.  Other factors to consider will be surface wind direction (more north would favor more snow in the lower elevations) and intensity of precipitation (which would act to lower the snow level some).

There are likely to be a number of moving parts in this scenario, and it’s too soon to estimate potential snowfall accumulations.  For planning purposes, it looks like snow, rain, or a mixture will spread across southern New England Tuesday afternoon (some models have precipitation starting by early afternoon and others not until very late in the afternoon) and continue into or possibly through Tuesday night.  The precipitation will likely be rain across the Cape and Islands, some mixture of rain and wet snow along and southeast of the I-95 corridor including the greater Boston area with probably little or no accumulation.  Further inland, there is a greater chance of at least some accumulation and potentially enough snow to meet winter storm warning criteria across the higher terrain of north central MA, southwest NH, and the Berkshires.

One other consideration is the potential for coastal impacts from storm surge and wave action.  The Tuesday and Wednesday morning astronomical high tides are relatively high.  However, the Tuesday evening astronomical high tide when the onshore northeast wind is likely to be strongest, is not especially high.  Hence, given the current timing, coastal impacts will likely be minor.  This could change if the storm should turn out to be notably slower or faster.

Will continue to monitor this developing weather situation and update in the next day or two as additional information becomes available and trends become clearer.

About this Blog and Disclaimer

The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary.  For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box.  For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.

A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant.  In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted.  It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information.  This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).

The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author.  Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.

Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)

The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large.  Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences.  For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.

Message issued November 28, 2025 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member