2014-2015 Winter Temperature Forecast

Editor’s Note: While Blue Hill Observatory does not issue forecasts and does not endorse this forecast, we thought our readers would enjoy hearing what a local seasonal forecaster is predicting. Judah Cohen is a scientist who specializes in seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research in Lexington, MA.

Forecast DJF Winter Temperature Anomaly 2014-2015

 
Using a model that considers Siberian snow cover, surface pressure and Arctic sea ice anomalies and other factors (Cohen and Fletcher, 2007), the AER seasonal temperature forecast for Winter 2014-2015 (see graphic) is for an expansive area of colder than average conditions over much of central and eastern North America. To read the rest of the seasonal forecast discussion for North America and to see the full graphic for the Northern Hemisphere, click here to visit the web site for this NSF-sponsored research.
A more in-depth discussion of the dynamical and surface processes that contribute to this forecast is available in the Arctic Oscillation blog, which is updated periodically.
The observed winter temperature anomalies for DJF 2014-2015 over North America is shown below:

References:
Cohen, J., and C. Fletcher, 2007: Improved Skill for Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature predictions based on land-atmosphere fall anomalies. J. Climate, 20, 4118-4132.