Early Season Nor’easter
The large nor’easter off the U.S. east coast is slowly moving north northeast but will curl to the west or even west southwest tonight south of New England and toward the New Jersey coast. It will begin to weaken Sunday morning but not fully exit the Northeast until Monday night or Tuesday. This message will just provide an update and not repeat all the information from prior blogs.
Although this storm is having some impact on southern New England, the much greater impact, especially with respect to coastal flooding and erosion, is occurring along the New Jersey shoreline and to some extent western Long Island (primarily ocean side) due to the track of the storm. While at peak intensity, the storm remains far enough south to spare southern New England its brunt but still affecting us due to its large size and long duration.
Wind
The wind has been and will continue to be a significant factor in several areas due to the combination of moderately strong winds and the trees fully leafed out. Wind gusts last night peaked between 50 and 60 mph across the Cape and Islands as well as southern RI with isolated higher gusts recorded. That was the location of the core of the low-level jet. Wind gusts were generally between 40 and 50 mph across the rest of east coastal MA.
Most models depict a strengthening of the low-level jet late today and tonight, mainly across northeast MA, RI, CT, and Long Island. Gusts between 40 and 50 mph are likely over Cape Ann and exposed higher terrain of the Worcester Hills tonight. Gusts between 45 and 55 mph are likely across RI, southern CT, and Long Island late today/tonight. Winds may gust to 60 mph at times this afternoon and tonight over western Long Island and the northern New Jersey shoreline, which is getting hammered the hardest by this storm. Winds will gradually diminish (although not entirely cease) throughout southern New England on Sunday.
Coastal Impacts
Moderate to severe erosion is expected during high tides today and tonight with lingering erosion likely Sunday into Monday due to the long duration wave action on top of elevated water levels. It often takes several days, however, after a storm before the extent of erosion can be verified.
Minor coastal flooding is expected during high tides the rest of this weekend and even Monday. There could be a few pockets of moderate coastal flooding along the Cape and Island shorelines, but that threat has eased some. Although the wind and waves will be subsiding Sunday into Monday, the astronomical tide gets higher, and thus there remains a continued risk of minor coastal flooding. Across western Long Island and especially along the New Jersey shoreline moderate to major coastal flooding will occur today and tonight. This could be a life-threatening situation for some spots along the New Jersey coast.
Am anticipating seas between 14 and 18 feet into Sunday morning across most of the ocean exposed coastal waters with 16 to 24 foot waves across the offshore waters south of New England. The wave action may exacerbate high tide flooding some by splashover and overwash at vulnerable locations.
In addition, high surf will persist for another day or two along nearly the entire eastern seaboard due to the swells generated by this large nor’easter.
Rain
Bands of rain, some heavy, will rotate through southern New England this afternoon through Monday. Total rainfall of generally 2 to 4 inches is expected across much of southern New England with isolated higher amounts (especially over eastern and southern sections) before it all ends Monday night or Tuesday morning. Amounts will likely vary from location to location due to the varying intensities and locations of the rain bands. Since the rain will be spread out over a considerable length of time, flooding is not a significant concern except for possible localized flooding in poor drainage or urban areas if an especially heavy rain band should pass through.
Tropics
The eastern North Pacific remains very active with respect to tropical cyclones. Major Hurricane Polo will weaken some late this weekend but still cross Baja California Sur (the Mexican state covering the southern half of the peninsula) as a powerful hurricane on Monday and likely reach the northwestern Mexico mainland coast still as a hurricane. Polo will weaken rapidly as it moves into northwest Mexico. Moisture from Polo (as well as Hurricane Odalys further offshore) will increase the flash flood threat for the U.S. Southwest going into early next week.
Further west, Hurricane Nolo is expected to turn west well south of the Hawaiian Islands but still close enough to produce strong, gusty winds across the entire island chain and heavy rain/flash flooding on the Big Island. There will also be large, dangerous surf along the southern and eastern shores of the Big Island. It looks now that Nolo will remain far enough to preclude the extreme rainfall feared a couple of days ago. Nevertheless, 6 to 10 inches of rain will likely fall across eastern and southern sections of the Big Island with a threat of flash flooding and mudslides in a few spots.
Next Message
This is probably the last message on the Nor’easter affecting southern New England. Will issue the weekly significant weather outlook on Monday.
About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)
The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large. Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences. For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.
Message issued September 26, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
