Early Season Nor’easter
A large and strong early season nor’easter will impact southern New England through the weekend with some lingering effects into early next week. This will be a slow-moving/long duration storm, which will exacerbate the various impacts. Impacts from this storm will include very rough seas, shoreline erosion, coastal flooding, strong winds, and swaths of heavy rain. There is finally good consensus on model track. This blog focuses on southern New England, which will have considerable impact from this storm. Nevertheless, expect the severest erosion and coastal flooding to occur along the New Jersey coast with this storm.
The National Weather Service has issued High Wind Warnings along the MA and RI coastal zones as well as a Coastal Flood Warning for the MA east coast. Wind advisories exist for interior eastern/central MA and northern RI. Coastal Flood Warnings are also in effect for the southwestern CT coast and Long Island. Storm Warnings are in effect for the coastal waters. Consult your local National Weather Service webpages for more up to date details on watches, warnings, and advisories.
Synoptic Set-up
The various computer models are now in agreement that the storm will move slowly north toward southern New England but then curl to the west toward the New Jersey coast where it will gradually weaken and then move to the north and northeast in a much weakened state over southern New England. It will track close enough to bring strong winds, significant coastal impacts (especially erosion), and bands of heavy rain into southern New England later today and through the weekend. The peak of the storm in terms of wind and rain will likely be tonight through Saturday night, but we will have lingering impacts through the rest of the weekend and even to some extent into Monday. The pressure gradient between the high pressure center to our north over Quebec and the low center to our south will generate strong northeasterly winds. All models depict a large storm with a broad swath of gale to storm force winds to the north and northwest of the low center.
For the record regarding the deterministic models, it appears as though the ECMWF and to a little lesser extent the UKMET were the first to key on what looks to be the final track whereas it took an extra couple of days for the American and Canadian models to fully catch up.
Another feature with this storm not previously mentioned in these blogs is that it seems to have developed at least a hint of a warm core. Although that’s indicative of some tropical characteristics and technically mean that this might actually be considered a hybrid system, I think the storm will probably remain characterized as more extratropical. We’ll see. This does not really significantly change the expected impacts.
The following sections will describe in more detail the anticipated impacts for southern New England.
Marine
Very rough seas will persist through this weekend. Sustained gale force winds with storm force gusts are expected to develop this afternoon, continue through Saturday, and possibly persist into Sunday morning. Seas will build to between 18 and 25 feet in the coastal waters and possibly as high as 25 to 30+ feet a little further offshore to the south of New England. The large envelope, long fetch, and long duration of strong winds will allow seas to build to dangerous heights.
This storm may interrupt or cause adjustments to ferry service to/from Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Block Island today and this weekend. Travelers should check with their ferry companies for any schedule modifications.
Coastal Impacts
Areas of severe beach erosion are likely to develop late today or tonight through Sunday along exposed east facing shorelines due to large waves atop elevated water levels crashing onshore over multiple high tide cycles. Even south facing shorelines of MA and RI will be susceptible to beach erosion as large swells come ashore, especially Saturday night through Sunday. Given the long duration of this event, anticipate wave periods to increase. Our experience is that waves with longer periods tend to contain more energy and can have a greater erosion impact.
Minor with pockets of moderate coastal flooding is expected along east-facing shorelines, starting with either the today’s daytime or more likely tonight’s high tide and continuing during successive high tide cycles through Sunday. Minor coastal flooding may persist even to Monday’s early afternoon high tide. Along the south coast of MA and RI, minor coastal flooding is likely around high tide Saturday through Sunday and possibly even into Monday. Anticipate the storm surge to increase to 2 to around 2.5 feet along much of the MA east coast over the weekend. The astronomical high tide is increasing over the weekend and into early next week (due to the combined gravitational pull of the moon and sun during/near the time of a full moon). Wave runup and overwash may exacerbate coastal flooding along east-facing shorelines exposed to the open ocean. Also, the long duration of this event will likely inhibit the ability of the water to fully evacuate during low tides. It’s possible that a few of the most vulnerable docks and those decks near the water line could be damaged by large breaking waves. Coastal residents and visitors are advised to monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from the National Weather Service.
Severe beach erosion and at least minor to moderate coastal flooding is likely for the Long Island coast. Especially severe beach erosion and moderate to major coastal flooding are anticipated along vulnerable portions of the New Jersey shoreline, which will probably be hit the hardest from this storm. High surf and some beach erosion will impact much of the rest of the eastern seaboard from this large and intense storm.
Wind
There is a significant risk of damaging northeast winds, especially along/near the MA and RI coast. Preliminary peak wind gust estimates are: 50 to 60 mph over the Cape and Islands, south coastal RI, as well as outer Cape Ann, 40 to 50 mph along the rest of eastern MA, much of RI, and coastal CT, and 30 to 40 mph across central MA and eastern/southern interior CT. The period of strongest winds looks to be this evening through Saturday night. The fact that trees are fully leafed out increases the risk of downed trees and branches as well as associated power disruptions. In fact, the National Weather Service notes from experience that wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph are high enough to bring down branches and cause some power interruptions. Thus, although the greatest risk of damaging wind gusts causing power outages exist near the coast, there may be even well inland high enough wind gusts to cause scattered tree damage and isolated power outages due to the full foliage.
Rain
Total storm rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected across much of eastern MA and RI (with pockets of higher amounts likely) and 1 to 3 inches across central MA and eastern/southern portions of CT. Generally, amounts up to an inch or so are anticipated further to the west. Since this rain will occur over a relatively long duration, the risk of flooding is low except in some prone urban and poor drainage areas should heavier bands of rain pass through.
Tropics
The eastern North Pacific remains very active with respect to tropical cyclones. Major Hurricane Polo will approach Baja California this weekend as a major hurricane. Polo will weaken rapidly as it moves into northwest Mexico. However, the remnants of Polo will likely move across northwest Mexico and contribute to the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding this weekend into next week across areas of the U.S. Southwest.
Further west, Hurricane Nolo will move toward the Big Island of Hawaii this weekend before it makes a sharp turn to the west south of Hawaii. Nolo will get close enough to Hawaii to cause extremely heavy rain, potentially catastrophic flash flooding, and mudslides on the Big Island in the coming days. An incredible 20 to 30 inches of rain may fall over portions of the southern half of the Big Island given the combination of rich tropical moisture, storm-related upward motion, and orographic uplift! Nolo will also produce dangerous surf along the Big Island’s southern shorelines. Heavy rain of 8 to 12 inches may fall on Maui as well.
Next Message
Another weather blog message may be issued Saturday if there are any significant changes on expected impacts from this early season nor’easter.
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The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
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Message issued September 25, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
