2018-2019 Winter Temperature Forecast

Editor’s Note: While Blue Hill Observatory does not issue forecasts and does not endorse this forecast, we thought our readers would enjoy hearing what a local seasonal forecaster is predicting. Judah Cohen is a scientist who specializes in seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research in Lexington, MA.

Using a model that considers Siberian snow cover, surface pressure and Arctic sea ice anomalies and other factors (Cohen and Fletcher, 2007), the AER seasonal temperature forecast for Winter 2018-2019 updated in early December 2018 (see graphic) is for an expansive area of slightly colder than average conditions over much of central and eastern North America with above average temperature in the northeastern and western United States and eastern Canada.  Click here to visit the web site for this NSF-sponsored seasonal forecasting research that includes the 2018-2019 winter temperature forecast previously issued in October 2018.
A more in-depth discussion of the dynamical and surface processes that contribute to this forecast is available in the AER Arctic Oscillation blog, which is updated periodically.
Cohen, J., and C. Fletcher, 2007: Improved Skill for Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature predictions based on land-atmosphere fall anomalies. J. Climate, 20, 4118-4132.