Cold Rain is Expected Most Areas with Minor High Terrain Snow Accumulations Possible Late Today into Friday
The main adjustment in the forecast is the timing. It now looks like the precipitation should slip offshore sometime Friday afternoon with perhaps just a lingering flurry or two Friday night as the upper trough passes overhead. Although the approaching upper-level trough is rather large and deep and the surface low pressure center may be elongated, the surface pattern looks to be rather progressive. There is good model agreement that the surface low pressure center will track just south of New England ahead of the mid to upper-level trough axis. As easterly lower-level winds initially back to more northerly tonight, colder air will filter into the region and result in wet snow mixing with the rain and likely the precipitation changing to mainly wet snow over some higher terrain areas.
The air mass will become just marginally cold enough for the precipitation to mix with or change to wet snow with precipitation intensity also being a factor. Areas of heavier precipitation may help cool the boundary layer enough to support more wet snow than rain. By the time the colder air becomes better established on Friday, however, the surface low pressure area and precipitation will be heading to the east and tracking to the south of Nova Scotia. Thus, while many interior areas may experience the first snowflakes of the season, this is expected to be a low impact event with any sloppy wet snow accumulation likely relegated to mainly grassy surfaces across higher terrain. It is possible, however, that a few inches of snow accumulation over the Berkshires may cause brief travel impacts above 1000 feet tonight into Friday morning.
Total precipitation through Friday will likely be around a half inch most locations, although there could be a swath or two of precipitation totaling a little over three-quarters of an inch. As far as snowfall, best estimate is for generally 1 to 3 inches across the Berkshires with perhaps 3 to 4 inches in spots above 1500 feet. A coating to an inch or two is possible over the higher elevations of the Worcester Hills (generally above 1000 feet) as well as the higher terrain across northern CT and northwest RI. There is just a slight risk that the combination of moderate to heavy precipitation and a marginally cold enough thermal profile could result in isolated higher amounts across the higher terrain along the MA/CT border and MA/RI border late tonight into Friday morning. Elsewhere across interior southern New England, wet snow may mix with the rain tonight into Friday morning with either no accumulation at all or just a coating on grassy surfaces west of I-495 in MA.
The precipitation should taper off and end Friday afternoon, which is sooner than earlier forecasted. A few flurries or mixed rain/snow showers are possible Friday night as the mid to upper-level trough axis moves through. The weekend looks to be dry but rather chilly with highs in the 40s and overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.
No significant flooding is expected with this storm, but there could be ponding of water on some roads especially where drains are clogged with leaves. Along the coast, east to northeast winds will kick up rough surf with perhaps some spotty erosion, and the water level may approach minor flood stage in Nantucket Harbor during the Friday afternoon high tide.
Next Message
Will continue to monitor the upcoming precipitation event, but this will probably be the last message on it. As always, check the latest information from the National Weather Service for real time updates. Most likely, the next message will be the weekly significant weather outlook scheduled for Monday November 16.
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Message issued November 12, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Advisory Council member
