Weather Blog: August 14, 2025 5 PM (Tropics)

ERIN FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE

Erin Update

Warmer sea surface temperatures and light to moderate vertical wind shear provide an environment conducive for Erin to strengthen.  Although some increase in vertical wind shear is forecast this weekend due to a strengthening dome of high pressure over the southern United States, various intensity models continue to forecast at least slow intensification, and Erin is likely to become a powerful, major hurricane (category 3 or greater wind intensity).

Erin is expected to move west-northwest along the southern edge of a subtropical high pressure ridge extending across the Atlantic Ocean.  The western portion of that ridge is expected to weaken in a few days and allow a channel for Erin to turn to the northwest, north, and eventually northeast, eventually passing offshore to the southeast of New England.  Nearly all operational models and their ensembles (note Tuesday’s discussion on ensemble modeling) recurve Erin offshore of the Bahamas and east coast of the United States.  There is some model variability, however, in how quickly and sharply Erin begins to recurve and hence some uncertainty on potential impacts to the U.S. eastern seaboard.

There looks to be a high probability that high surf and rip currents will be an issue for the United States east coast next week (and the Bahamas late this weekend).  Should the more western model tracks verify, then it’s possible that portions of the Bahamas, Cape Hatteras, and Nantucket could get into the outer wind circulation and possibly an outer rain band.  At this time, it appears quite unlikely that winds would approach tropical storm force in these areas.  Nevertheless, it’s prudent for people along the east coast, especially Hatteras as well as the Cape and Islands to keep at least one eye on Erin as greater clarity is gained on its probable track.

Recommended Actions Regarding Erin

Erin is a reminder that we are approaching the peak period of the hurricane season, and it is not too soon to review how one might respond to any hurricane threat.  More specifically regarding Erin, any mariners planning offshore trips next week should pay close attention to later forecasts from the National Weather Service including advisories from the National Hurricane Center.  Also, there is a high probability that high surf and dangerous rip currents will be issues along portions of the eastern U.S. coastline next week including the ocean side of the Cape and Islands.

Further Information

The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary.  For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box.  For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.  For the latest information on Atlantic basin hurricane activity, access the National Hurricane Center website at nhc.noaa.gov.

About this Blog and Disclaimer

These weather messages are issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and they will provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant.  In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be impacted.  It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information.  This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).

The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author.  Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.

Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)

The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large.  Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences.  For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.

Next Update on Erin

Another follow-up message on Erin will be issued sometime this weekend.

Message issued by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member