Significant Weather Outlook: Monday, March 16, 2026 10 AM
Significant Weather Weekly Outlook
Main Focus: Risk of Strong Winds and Heavy Rain/Flooding Today and Tonight
A strong surface low pressure center will cross the Great Lakes today in connection with a high amplitude sharp upper trough. Southern New England will be in the warm sector with strong southerly winds and pulses of heavy downpours.
Wind: All the global and regional numerical prediction models depict a strong low-level jet of wind between 2000 and 3000 feet across southeast New England this afternoon and especially tonight, peaking between 80 and 100 mph in the 9 PM to 3 AM time frame. The big question is how much of that wind will mix to the surface, since a temperature inversion (cooler near the surface and warmer aloft) will likely exist. Anomalously warm low-level temperatures away from the immediate south coast (possibly into the lower 60s) over land surfaces, however, may at least partially offset the influence of the nearby cool ocean water. Over southeast MA and RI, southerly winds will likely gust to 50 mph this afternoon and between 50 and 60 mph tonight with a risk of isolated gusts between 60 and 70 mph (especially over higher exposed terrain such as at the Blue Hill Observatory at the top of Great Blue Hill). These wind gusts will likely cause numerous downed trees and branches and result in scattered power outages. The National Weather Service has a High Wind Warning in effect across RI and much of eastern MA.
Over other parts of MA (western, central, and northeast) and CT, southerly winds will gust between 45 and 55 mph late this afternoon and tonight with a risk of widely scattered tree damage and isolated power outages.
Winds will shift from south to west with the passage of a strong cold front late tonight/early morning hours of Tuesday.
Heavy Rain/Flooding: The low-level jet will also bring very moist subtropical air into southern New England and result in pulses of heavy rain throughout today and much of tonight. Anticipate widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall across southern New England today and tonight with swaths of 2 to 3+ inches. The rain combined with saturated ground from recent snowmelt may result in some small stream and river flooding. Among the main stem rivers in Rhode Island, the Pawtuxet, Pawcatuck, and Wood Rivers could at least go into minor flood. In Massachusetts, the Assabet, Deerfield, Sudbury, North Nashua, Shawsheen, and Taunton Rivers are among those that may have a risk of flooding in spots. In Connecticut, the Housatonic River and the lower Connecticut River from Hartford to Middle Haddam have a fairly high risk of some flooding. For more information on river forecasts go to local National Weather Service and click on the River and Lakes icon or go to the Northeast River Forecast Center.
Thunderstorms: Embedded thunderstorms with especially heavy downpours and even very strong wind gusts are possible as well this afternoon and tonight (including along and shortly ahead of a strong cold front). The air mass looks to be fairly unstable aloft with the approaching cold front, which will induce fairly strong uplift. It’s possible that thunderstorms and/or heavier showers will organize in one or two short west to east moving lines tonight along or just ahead of the cold front tonight. There is at least a slight risk that strong wind gusts associated with a few thunderstorms may produce isolated damage beyond that expected from the broader area of strong winds across southeast MA and RI. Closely monitor your local National Weather Service for any short-fused warnings that may be issued.
For anyone traveling south of New England today, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a “moderate risk” of severe thunderstorms over the mid-Atlantic region including the Washington, DC, area as well as large parts of MD, VA, and NC. The designation of a “moderate risk” is more significant than it may seem at first glance and is bounded by an area of enhanced risk across eastern/central PA, SC, and southeast GA. It is likely that there will be pockets of wind damage throughout a sizable portion of the mid-Atlantic region into a portion of the Southeast U.S. There is even a risk of a few tornadoes in the mid-Atlantic region this afternoon/early evening.
Rest of the Week
The air mass will turn sharply colder Tuesday morning and remain on the cool side through at least mid-week. One or two systems may produce rain or snow next weekend (most likely rain across southern New England and snow across northern New England).
Next Message
The next message will likely be the scheduled weekly significant weather outlook planned to be issued next Monday March 23 unless a weather event later in the week/next weekend should show the potential to produce significant hazardous weather.
About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)
The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large. Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences. For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.
Message issued March 16, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member
