Significant Weather Outlook: Monday, February 9, 2026 10 AM
Significant Weather Weekly Outlook
Weather highlights this week are anticipated to include snow Tuesday evening, moderating temperatures, and possibly a significant rain or snow storm late this coming weekend into early next week.
From a significant weather perspective, snow Tuesday evening is expected to be generally light but still with the potential for several inches of accumulation at least across northern and northeast Massachusetts. The evening commute out of greater Springfield, Worcester, and Boston could be affected. The cause of the snow will be a clipper low pressure system and associated warm front that approaches northwest New England and then redevelops somewhere east or southeast of Cape Cod. Just where and how quickly the surface low redevelopment takes place will have an impact on snow amounts. Both the ECMWF and UKMET models from overnight (0600 UTC or 1 AM runs) depict only about a half inch to inch of snow, consistent with their prior runs. The overnight runs of the GFS and Canadian models suggest closer to 2 to 4 inches (getting in the range of plowable snow) for at least most of Massachusetts. The morning run of the higher resolution NAM model (initiated at 1200 UTC or 7 AM EST) backed off from prior runs and depicts generally 1 to 2 inches of snow. Realizing that there remains some degree of uncertainty, am inclined at this time to estimate 1 to 3 inches across most of Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island and a half inch to inch across Connecticut and southern Rhode Island. The possibility exists of 3 to 4 inches near the VT and NH border as well as across northeast MA (Essex County).
That secondary low pressure area may be slow to exit the southern Gulf of Maine and could cause areas of light snow showers to swipe the outer Cape later in the week. Any accumulation, however, looks to be on the light side.
A more moisture rich storm embedded in the southern stream upper flow may impact our region late this coming weekend into early next week. The various operational and ensemble model runs are rather widely dispersed on the track of this storm, presently about a week away. These models depict what could be a complete miss, a major snow storm, or a heavy rain storm. Seems like the various global model ensembles favor a track near or south of New England, but the consensus of ensemble runs could easily change over the coming days. Will be keeping an eye on this potential storm since the amount of precipitation, be it in the form of snow or rain, could be quite substantial if it tracks close enough to southern New England. A precipitation event of over an inch (water equivalent) on the current snowpack could cause some roof loading issues. Will monitor future developments and start a message blog series later this week if the threat of a significant precipitation event (either rain or snow) should increase.
About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant. In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted. It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information. This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)
The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large. Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences. For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.
Message issued February 9, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member
