Significant Weather Outlook: Monday, February 23, 2026 3 PM

Weekly Significant Weather Outlook

 Will begin this outlook with a few thoughts on the major nor’easter that will wind down this evening and then look briefly at a couple of weather systems (one minor and the other possibly more significant) that may affect us this week.

Major Nor’easter for Monday February 23

Today’s nor’easter is not over at the time of this writing and thus a full recap would be premature.  Nevertheless, it looks as though the forecast fared reasonably well especially given the strength and complexity of this storm.

From a snowfall perspective, it looks as though those higher amounts around and eventually over 2 feet will indeed be the case along the Boston to Providence I-95 corridor and 20 or so miles on either side.  By the time the storm winds down, there may be a few spots that measure 3 feet in RI!  As of 1 PM, the Providence, RI T.F. Greene International Airport had set a new single storm record of 32.8 inches, and it was still snowing.  The blog forecast looks to be somewhat overdone for the Merrimack Valley and east central MA, which remained just outside the band of heavy snow across southeast MA and RI, and a little underdone for RI even though all and all the projections seemed to be in the ballpark.

The winds indeed have been impressive with gusts over 70 mph across the Cape and Islands and RI south coast (e.g. 77 mph In Wellfleet, 83 mph at Nantucket, and 74 mph at Quonset, RI), 68 mph at the Blue Hill Observatory, over 60 mph along much of the MA east coast (e.g. 62 mph at Boston), and over 50 mph well inland across much of central MA (e.g. 59 mph at Worcester).  The combination of a fairly wet consistency snow over southeast MA (including the Cape) and RI has indeed caused numerous power outages (over 290,000 customers reported out in Massachusetts as of early Monday afternoon).  Blizzard conditions have been observed over much of eastern MA and RI (including Boston and Providence) and a few spots in central MA (e.g. Worcester).

Coastal flooding appeared to be minor along most of the MA east coast except minor to moderate on Nantucket and possibly Martha’s Vineyard (where don’t have confirmation yet) for the early morning high tide.  This was the highest astronomical high tide, and conditions were in the process of ramping up at the time with a storm surge of 2 to 2.5 feet Boston to Plymouth and 3 feet on Nantucket.  Storm surge and waves as expected continued to increase during the time of the Monday morning low tide and remaining high for the coming late afternoon high tide.  The storm surge peaked out between 3 and 3.5 feet at Boston and was running close to 4.3 feet at 2 PM in Nantucket Harbor.  Waves peaked out between 20 and 25 feet in the coastal waters (with 10 to 11 second periods, which portend high energy waves).

For the late afternoon high tide, anticipate more minor coastal flooding along the eastern MA coast north of Cape Cod and minor to moderate coastal flooding along vulnerable Cape and Island shorelines.  It’s looking like Nantucket Harbor will have a 6 to 6.5-foot storm tide above MLLW late this afternoon (matching or possibly exceeding the early morning storm tide level.  In addition, snow, slush, and ice may exacerbate drainage issues following the high tide.  Anticipate severe beach erosion during this late afternoon high tide along the ocean side of the Cape and vulnerable Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard shorelines.  Some beach erosion may also occur for the rest of the MA east coast vulnerable shoreline.

It is worth noting that these peak conditions of storm surge and wave amplitudes at the time of the early morning high tide (6 hours before) would have resulted in moderate coastal flooding north of the Cape and probably moderate to major coastal flooding along portions of the Cape and Islands.  And that early Monday morning high tide was not especially high astronomically.  The takeaway is that we need to be prepared for significantly worse scenarios along the coast when major storms coincide with high astronomical tides.  It will probably be quite a few days before a reasonably full assessment of beach erosion will be available.  Given the elevated water levels and especially the wave action, there has likely been significant beach erosion along much of the MA coastline, especially on the ocean side of the Cape, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.

Light Snow Wednesday

A fast-moving clipper system may produce 1 to 2 inches of snow across southern New England on Wednesday.  It’s not likely to be much more significant than that.

Possible Snow or Rain/Snow on Friday

A low pressure center may pass close enough to southern New England to produce at least some snow over at least some of the area.  This looks to be a fairly progressive system.  Most of the deterministic models have the low center passing some distance south of New England with some depicting tracks closer than others.  A number of the ensemble runs take the low center closer to or even over southern New England, which could mean the possibility of some rain along the south coast.  At this point, there is considerable uncertainty with this system, at least in part related to how much interaction may occur between northern and southern upper flow streams.  Will monitor future developments and start a blog series if it looks to become more significant.

For now, it looks like quiet weather over the coming weekend.

About this Blog and Disclaimer

The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary.  For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box.  For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.

A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant.  In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted.  It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information.  This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).

The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author.  Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.

 Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)

The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large.  Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences.  For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.

Message issued February 23, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member