Significant Weather Blog: Wednesday, February 18, 2026 9 AM
Updated Significant Weather Outlook
Forecasting continues to be challenging this week into early next week. The rationale for this morning’s update is what looks to be less snow tonight based on model trends overnight (including the higher resolution regional models). The second system late Friday afternoon and night could be potentially significant, but there are precipitation type challenges due to the protrusion of a layer of warmer air aloft over at least some of southern New England. The consensus of the various computer models points toward a significant late Sunday night/Monday coastal storm with an uncertain track. Latest guidance suggests that the storm may remain some distance offshore but probably close enough for at least some impact across southern RI and southeast MA.
This Afternoon/Tonight
One of those packets of energy being ejected out of the large west coast upper trough will slide to the southeast across southern New England late this afternoon and tonight. Marginal temperatures suggest that precipitation this afternoon will likely be mainly in the form of light rain or light rain and snow mixed (except just snow over the higher elevations of the Berkshires). The precipitation should transition to snow tonight everywhere but likely tapering off by midnight with only light accumulations. There could also be a period of patchy light freezing rain across northern CT early this evening. With the main precipitation axis looking weaker and focused further south into warmer air, am thinking snowfall will be lighter than earlier anticipated. At this time, it looks like there might be a band of 1 to 3 inches extending from the Berkshires into northeast CT, northwest RI, and southwest Worcester County. Elsewhere across southern New England, it looks like more on the order of just a coating to around an inch. There could be some slippery travel across southern New England this evening as the temperature drops to near or below freezing but do not anticipate any issues for the Thursday morning commute. Even though this event is just hours away, it’s not locked in stone. The trend, however, seems to be for lighter amounts.
Late Friday to Early Saturday
This system will likely feature more moisture than tonight’s very weak system but presents a challenging precipitation type forecast. Snow will likely overspread southern New England as warmer, moist air flows over colder air ahead of an approaching warm front extending from a low pressure center weakening over the eastern Great Lakes. The surface warm front will likely stall near or just south of the New England south coast but a warmer above freezing layer aloft will spread north over southern New England. This will cause the snow to change to rain along south and southeast coastal sections and to sleet or freezing rain over at least some of interior southern New England. How far north the precipitation changeover to sleet/freezing rain occurs will depend upon how quickly a secondary low pressure center forms just southeast of New England. This low pressure center would act to hold back the northward progression of the warmer air aloft if it should form quickly enough. This introduces quite a bit of uncertainty into this forecast. At this time inclined to think the precipitation will remain snow across northern MA but probably change to a period of sleet or freezing rain over the interior as far north as the Mass Pike (I-90) corridor.
As far as possible snowfall amounts, first estimates would be 4 to 8 inches along and north of the route 2 corridor in MA (and into southern VT and NH) and 3 to 5 inches of a messy snow/sleet mixture along the Mass Pike (I-90) corridor from Springfield to Worcester to Boston. South of the Mass Pike in central MA and across most of CT, RI, and southeast MA, anticipate 1 to 3 inches of snow before a changeover to sleet/freezing rain over southwest and south central MA, northern CT and northern RI with likely a change to just rain closer to the coast. All of this may need to be adjusted depending upon how quickly that secondary low pressure center forms southeast of New England. Chances are this forecast will need to be adjusted some as we get closer to the event.
Sunday Night into Monday
Confidence is increasing that a fairly strong storm will form somewhere off the mid-Atlantic coast, but considerable uncertainty remains with respect to how close it will track to the New England coastline. The overall trend in both the operational and ensemble model runs is for this storm to remain some distance offshore but conceivably close enough for some impact to southeast New England. Interestingly, the ECMWF model was showing a complete miss but now brings the storm close enough for some impact to at least some of southern New England, while the other models are now trending further offshore. Any snow from this system will likely fall late Sunday night into Monday. Anticipate that we will need to wait another 36 to 48 hours (i.e., late Thursday or Friday morning) to have greater confidence on the track. For now, all options remain on the table.
There will likely be enough of an onshore northeast wind even with an offshore storm for a risk of minor coastal flooding and some beach erosion along portions of the eastern MA shoreline, including and especially the Cape and Islands. The astronomical high tide is moderately high in the Monday timeframe.
Next Message
Will continue to monitor the future evolution of potential winter weather developments for southern New England and update as necessary to reflect significant changes. As always, check with the local National Weather Service for the latest forecasts and locations of any warnings/advisories.
About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant. In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted. It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information. This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)
The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large. Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences. For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.
Message issued February 18, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member
