Significant Weather Blog: Tuesday, February 17, 2026 5 PM

Updated Significant Weather Outlook

Will probably provide daily updated weather message blogs for at least a time this week due to a fairly active, albeit very low confidence, weather pattern.  As noted in yesterday’s outlook, this is certainly an interesting and challenging week from a forecast perspective.  It remains to be seen just how interesting the weather turns out for southern New England.

As also noted yesterday, the weather pattern at the mid tropospheric level (500 mb pressure level) features a series of short wavelength troughs flowing through and becoming ejected east from a large quasi-stationary upper trough along the U.S. west coast this week.  An omega type high pressure block north of the Great Lakes near the Ontario/Quebec border causes the series of energy being ejected out of the large west coast trough to be shunted along a quasi-stationary warm front lying over or just south of southern New England.  The evolution of this blocking ridge of high pressure will likely play a key role in the weather ahead, especially for late in the weekend into early next week.

North of the frontal boundary any precipitation will fall mainly as snow and south of the boundary as rain showers.  Some mixed precipitation in the form of sleet or freezing rain could exist just north of this boundary due to cold air near the surface but a warm layer aloft.  The challenge is what will be the precise location of this frontal boundary as surface low pressure areas or waves pass along it and potentially in one or two cases intensify to some extent southeast of New England.  The various global and regional computer models are not in agreement on the placement of this boundary as well as placement of surface low pressure areas interacting with this boundary.  This boundary may undulate some north and south over the next several days to result in changing precipitation type conditions.  Discussed below are three potential winter events for at least parts of southern New England.

Wednesday Afternoon/Night

One of those packets of energy being ejected out of the large western trough will slide to the southeast across southern New England late Wednesday afternoon and night.  At the surface, a weak low pressure area will slide southeast along the surface frontal boundary probably initially lying across southern New England and then probably sagging to just south of New England.  Although this event is less than 24 hours away, there remains considerable uncertainty in the placement of a relatively narrow precipitation axis as well as the positioning and transitioning of the frontal boundary.  It appears as though temperatures will be very marginal for rain versus snow over much of the area Wednesday afternoon when the precipitation starts but then turn colder in the late afternoon or early evening.  Believe the precipitation may start as snow over the higher terrain of northern and western MA but as light rain or mixed rain/snow elsewhere.  The precipitation should change to snow at most, if not all, locations Wednesday evening.  The timing and precise axis of the more significant precipitation and thermal profile creates a much higher level of uncertainty for an event not that far away.  The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of western and central MA.  Noting above average uncertainty, anticipate 2 to 4 inches of snow over the Berkshires into northern and central Worcester County with a few spots in the Berkshires possibly reaching 5 inches.  Along the Mass Pike corridor from Worcester to Boston, anticipate about 1 to 3 inches of snow, mostly accumulating after sunset.   Around an inch of snow is possible across CT (except 1 to 3 inches near the MA border), RI, and southeast MA (including the Cape and Islands).  Keep in mind that there remains much uncertainty in this forecast, and that axis of 2 to 4 inches could shift north or south.  Travel may not be impacted all that much in the afternoon due to surface temperatures running a little above freezing in most locations but then possibly becoming slippery at least on untreated surfaces during the evening as surface temperatures drop.  Snow should end west to east after midnight.

Late Friday to Early Saturday

The various computer models depict a wide spectrum with respect to timing, precipitation type, and intensity for this event as well.  Precipitation is expected to break out late Friday afternoon and continue into or through Friday night.  Initially, precipitation will break out due to moisture overrunning a quasi-stationary warm front with a fairly weak surface low pressure center forming just south or southeast of New England Friday night.  The precipitation is likely to be in the form of snow across northern MA.  Elsewhere, we may witness snow mixing with and possibly changing to sleet or freezing rain over interior sections and possibly just rain along southern RI and southeast MA coastal areas.  Several inches of snow are possible especially north of the Mass Pike, but it’s too uncertain to be any more specific.  Some icing is possible as well especially over portions of CT and RI and adjacent MA.

Sunday Night into Monday

A third system may impact southern New England Sunday night into Monday.  This has the potential to be a major winter storm accompanied by strong northeast winds and minor coastal flooding along portions of the MA east coast.  However, uncertainty reigns with this storm as well with regard to intensity and track.  A key player in this scenario is likely to be the evolution of a ridge of mid tropospheric high pressure along the Ontario/Quebec border.  The ECMWF model in particular cuts this ridge off early and results in a more benign positively tilted upper trough that in turn prompts a weaker surface low pressure center to pass out to sea south of New England.  Some of the other global models (including the AI version of the ECMWF) hold that blocking ridge longer which in turn prompts a sharper negatively tilted upper trough that spawns a more intense surface low pressure center closer to the coast.  We have seen a couple of potential significant coastal storms in the Sunday night/Mondary time frame pass harmlessly out to sea.  And there are ensemble members of all the global models that do the same with this system.  Nevertheless, there is just too much uncertainty and so will need to continue to monitor future projections and trends closely.  We will probably have a better idea on the track and intensity of this system by late Thursday.

Other – Western United States

A series of storms are impacting the western United States with total snowfall of 3 to 5 feet over the high Sierra in CA and NV and 1 to 3 feet about Lake Tahoe expected by the end of Wednesday.  Even a half foot or so is expected in some of the northeast CA and western NV valleys including Reno itself by Wednesday.  As much as 1 to 2 feet may fall this week over the higher terrain of northwest CA and southwest OR.  High travel impacts should be expected across a large portion of the West early to mid-week.  A check of the Mt. Rose ski area webcam in western Nevada this afternoon showed heavy snow and blowing snow with near zero visibility.

Next Message

Will continue to monitor the future evolution of our weather pattern for southern New England this week and will probably provide an update Wednesday given the potential uncertain winter weather.

About this Blog and Disclaimer

The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary.  For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box.  For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.

A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant.  In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted.  It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information.  This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).

The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author.  Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.

Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)

The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large.  Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences.  For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.

 Message issued February 17, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member