Significant Weather Blog: Thursday, January 29, 2026 5 PM
Potential Still for High Impact Storm for the Cape and Islands Sunday and Sunday Night
Latest trends in model guidance (initiated with 7 AM data) have been to shift the track of the coastal storm to form off the Carolina coast further offshore from southern New England. It still may track close enough, however, for heavy snow, strong winds, and coastline impacts across Cape Cod and the Islands. There still may also be some shoreline impacts along the rest of east coastal MA. For interior southern New England, the threat of significant snow has diminished.
Discussion
There remains high confidence of a storm forming off the Carolina coast this weekend, but computer model guidance continues to depict a large spread in projected storm tracks. Even so, there has been a general shift in the envelope of various track projections further offshore from southern New England. This translates to only a low probability for a significant impact for interior southern New England, but the storm still looks as though it may track close enough to the coast for moderate to heavy snow and fairly strong winds over the Cape and Islands. A sharpening and digging trough will likely trigger cyclogenesis (formation of a low pressure center) along a low-level temperature gradient near the west side of the Gulf Stream. This tight temperature gradient constitutes potential energy that can be released when an upper-level trough approaches. There is fairly high confidence that an intense storm with strong winds over a large area will develop off the Carolina coast and significantly impact the western Atlantic region. There remains some doubt as to just how far offshore this storm may track and hence there remains a risk of significant snow and wind over the Cape and Islands. The UKMET model (initiated at 7 AM this morning) still depicts a complete miss. Based on the suite of operational and ensemble model output initiated at 7 AM, it looks likely that Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard will be at least grazed by this storm and still possibly receive 6 or more inches of snow and winds gusting to at least 50 mph.
This storm is expected to have an especially large wind field of gale to storm force intensity. This will cause considerable wave buildup and a significant fetch (distance that the wind is flowing over the water). The northeast wind may ramp up soon enough for coastal erosion and possibly minor coastal flooding around the time of the Sunday mid-morning high tide, which is quite high astronomically. Still stronger northeast winds around the time of the late Sunday evening high tide may produce around a 2-foot surge and waves near 20 feet for another bout of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion, although that high tide is considerably lower astronomically. If the storm should track closer to the coast than most models currently show, then there could be a risk of minor to moderate coastal flooding and more serious beach erosion. Most of the concern is for beach erosion on the ocean sides of the Cape and Nantucket, but some beach erosion and spotty minor coastal flooding could occur elsewhere along the MA east coast all the way north to Newburyport/Plum Island. The Monday midday high tide is also high astronomically. By that time, the wind should have shifted to NNW or NW with a risk of beach erosion mainly confined to the Cape Cod Bay shore from about Dennis to Truro.
Forecast and Impacts
The potential exists for the Cape, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket to receive 6 or more inches of snow accompanied by strong northeast winds Sunday and Sunday night. The combination of wind (gusts over 50 mph) and heavy (but powdery) snow could produce a period of blizzard or near blizzard conditions, providing the heavy precipitation field reaches as far northwest as the Cape and Islands. This is far from certain, but the risk remains.
There will likely be some shoreline erosion as well (even if the storm tracks fairly far offshore) especially along the ocean side of the Cape, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard but cannot rule out at least some impact along the rest of the exposed MA east coast. There is also a risk of minor or minor to moderate (worst case scenario) coastal flooding on Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard due to elevated water levels and wave over-wash during the Sunday morning and late evening high tides. The timing of the stronger onshore winds and peak wave action will probably occur during the lower of the astronomical high tides and thus mitigate a more serious impact.
Outside of the Cape and Islands, there remains a possibility of a moderate snowfall over southeast MA (southeast of the I-95 corridor) with possibly some enhancement from ocean effect snow along the coast from Plymouth to Hull and Weymouth. This is an area of especially high uncertainty due to sensitivity on the exact storm track.
Finally, anyone traveling to North Carolina, South Carolina, and even northeast Georgia this weekend should monitor the latest forecasts and statements from the National Weather Service. There is a fairly high probability of a major impact from this storm due to heavy snow, strong winds near the coast, and coastal flooding/beach erosion about the Outer Banks. This is a part of the country not used to much snow!
Next Message
Will plan to issue an updated message on Friday, when there will hopefully be greater confidence in the eventual storm track.
About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant. In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted. It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information. This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
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The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large. Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences. For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.
Message issued January 29, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member
