Significant Weather Blog: Thursday, February 19, 2026 11 AM
A Tale of Two Storms
Whether the weather actually turns out interesting or not, forecasting the next two events looks to be interesting and challenging. There is moderate to high confidence of a somewhat impactful winter storm for a sizable portion of southern New England Friday afternoon and night. This is a complicated situation, however, with multiple moving parts and hence challenging to discern the details. Looking toward the end of the weekend, there remains very low confidence on the track of a storm expected to form off the mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night and pass some distance (but what distance!) southeast of New England on Monday.
Friday Afternoon and Night
Discussion: A surface low pressure center will move across the Great Lakes on Friday toward the Adirondacks and weaken. A warm front (technically a warm occlusion) will approach southern New England Friday afternoon with overrunning moisture. The real key to this forecast is how quickly a secondary low pressure center develops south of New England before moving east out to sea Saturday morning. Warmer air aloft will move toward southern New England Friday afternoon well ahead of the primary low pressure area moving through the eastern Great Lakes but will eventually be cut off by the developing secondary low center south of New England. There is some variation in how the numerical predication models handle this with the NAM consistently being the most aggressive with the northward progression of the warm layer aloft.
A modest trend in the other models over the past 24 hours appears to be a slightly cooler solution except for the NAM which appears slower to develop the secondary low. Should the NAM prove correct, then would have to rather drastically reduce snowfall projections for all areas. Presently, am thinking that the warm layer aloft will advance far enough north for snow to change to sleet and possibly a little freezing rain over the interior at least as far north as the Mass Pike corridor from Springfield to Worcester to Boston and to just rain along the south coast (including Cape and Islands) and possibly along the Plymouth County coast but not before at least some accumulation. As the secondary low pressure center develops, anticipate the precipitation to change back to snow over most of southern New England with some additional accumulation possible, although the precipitation may come to an earlier end over Connecticut Friday evening. Due to an inverted surface trough extending west of the departing secondary low center toward the decaying primary low center over the Adirondacks, areas of light snow or scattered snow showers may linger through Saturday morning.
Another issue with this system will be marginal surface temperatures that will result in relatively low snow to liquid ratios (probably less than 10 to 1 except in the higher elevations). This will likely suppress accumulations to some extent (even more so over CT and southern RI where precipitation duration is anticipated to be shorter).
Still another issue will be the intensity of precipitation and strength of the uplift in the dendritic snow growth zone (generally between -12C and -18C) as the secondary low develops. The more quickly the secondary low develops before moving out to sea could influence the precipitation intensity which in turn would influence atmospheric cooling and the ability of snowfall rates to overcome marginal surface temperatures. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty in this detail.
Forecast: Assimilating these complex and compensating factors together, anticipate snow to spread northeast across southern New England during Friday afternoon reaching central MA during mid afternoon and northeast MA during late afternoon. The snow may be mixed with rain in much of CT and southern RI due to both warmer surface temperatures and the leading edge of the warm nose aloft. The snow will likely mix with or change to sleet or freezing rain for a time across interior locations at least as far north as the Mass Pike (I-90) corridor and to just rain along the south coast (including the Cape and Islands) and possibly along the Plymouth County coast. The precipitation will likely change back to snow across most of MA and northern RI later Friday. Areas of light snow may persist overnight into Saturday morning.
Potential Accumulations: Anticipate total snowfall of 4 to 7 inches across northern MA (route 2 corridor and north including northern Middlesex and northern Essex Counties) with highest amounts over the higher terrain (above 1000 feet) of north central MA and the Berkshires. Further south, anticipate 2 to 5 inches of snow or snow/sleet accumulation along the Mass Pike corridor from Springfield to Worcester to Boston’s Metro West. In the Boston area itself, anticipate the potential for 2 to 4 inches extending southwest into northern RI and northeast CT. Elsewhere, estimate a total accumulation of just 1 to 3 inches. These numbers are rather tentative and may need to be adjusted some depending upon the evolution of that secondary low pressure center.
Impacts: Snow will likely arrive in time to affect the evening commute in much of southern New England (including greater Boston), although surface temperatures near or a couple of degrees above freezing may mitigate accumulation on treated roadways. In addition to the precipitation itself, cooling temperatures Friday night will likely result in icy spots. There looks to be a fairly high probability of plowable snow across northern MA as well as the possibility of enough snow or snow and sleet to merit plowing further south to perhaps the MA/RI and MA/CT border. Keep in mind that although the amounts may not be all that high, this will likely be a heavier wet snow than some prior storms across northern MA. In addition, there could be the possibility of a dense icy mix of snow, sleet, and even ice from freezing rain across southwest and south central MA.
Late Sunday Night into Monday
Probably the best forecast for this time frame is to not make a forecast at all! All numerical prediction models point toward an intense storm forming off the mid-Atlantic coast as an upper trough moves southeast and closes off or nearly closes off east of the mid-Atlantic coast. There is much disparity, however, in the track of the surface low pressure center and northwest extent of the precipitation shield among the various operational global models that ran last night (initializing at 0000 UTC or 0600 UTC). For example the UKMET (initialized at 0000 UTC) and the ECMWF (initialized at 0600 UTC) depict the storm to completely miss southern New England while the GFS (initialized at 0600 UTC) track would result in a major snow storm for much of southern New England (with a foot of snow even into parts of central MA). The Canadian operational model (initialized at 0000 UTC) depicted a storm track close enough for moderate impacts over at least the southeast third of southern New England. The AI versions of both the ECMWF and GFS would indicate potentially moderate snowfall over the Cape and Islands and possibly adjacent portions of southeast MA. The majority of the ECMWF ensemble runs depict an out to sea track, although several members depict a high impact scenario. Like the GFS operational model, more of the GFS ensemble members depict a moderate or high impact, but a number of the members show a relatively far offshore track.
All of this simply indicates a lot of uncertainty regarding the track of the late Sunday night/Monday storm and subsequent impact, if any, on southern New England. The greatest threat would be for the Cape and Islands, but the storm may pass far enough offshore to have no influence there as well. Believe that we will probably have a growing confidence in the track at last by sometime Friday afternoon as by then the global models should have an opportunity to better sample the various incipient factors.
There may be enough of an onshore northeast wind even with an offshore storm for a risk of minor coastal flooding and some beach erosion along portions of the eastern MA shoreline, including and especially the Cape and Islands. The astronomical high tide is moderately high in the Monday timeframe.
Next Message
Will continue to monitor projections for these two storms and will likely issue an update tomorrow (Friday) at the latest. As always, check with the local National Weather Service for the latest forecasts and locations of any watches/warnings/advisories.
About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant. In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted. It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information. This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
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Message issued February 19, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member
