Significant Weather Blog: Saturday, January 17, 2026 1 PM
Weekend Weather Update
This is an update on this weekend’s winter weather. The Sunday afternoon/night snowfall has become a little clearer, although uncertainty remains in how far west plowable snow may fall as well as the accumulation over the outer Cape and Nantucket.
This Afternoon
A tightening mid-level thermal gradient and associated strengthening of a jet streak is producing upward motion in the dendritic snow growth zone. Due to marginal temperatures further southeast, most of the snow will fall across northern CT, far northwest RI, as well as western, central and interior northeast MA. Temperatures a little above freezing at the low elevations west and northwest of I-495 should keep accumulations in the 1 to 2 inch range with 2 to 4 inches across the colder higher terrain. of central and western MA as well as northwest CT. A few spots in the Berkshires may reach 5 inches. The snow will end west to east around or a little after sunset.
Sunday Afternoon and Night
The various computer weather models have finally come into better agreement for this event, although there remains some uncertainty as to how far west the plowable snow will accumulate as well as how much snow will accumulate on the outer Cape and Nantucket given marginal low-level temperatures there. A southern stream surface low pressure center will pass southeast of New England Sunday night – in fact southeast of the 40N latitude, 70W longitude benchmark. This track is too far offshore for a major snowstorm for at least most of southern New England. Nevertheless, there looks to be some interaction that will take place with a northern stream upper short wave trough. Although a full phasing is not expected, the interaction will likely allow moist upward motion to spread fairly far west for an expanded area of light to moderate snow. The UKMET model is notably further offshore but appears to be an outlier at this time given the consistency of track and precipitation shield from other models. The result is likely to be a light to moderate snowstorm for most of southern New England.
Light snow will spread into southern New England mid to late Sunday morning and become heavier toward dark. Snow should end early Monday morning.
As far as snowfall amounts, anticipate 3 to 6 inches of snow along and southeast of the I-95 corridor from Boston to Providence and as far southeast as the upper Cape. Due to milder temperatures in the lower levels, am anticipating a lower snow to liquid ratio (with possibly some rain mixed in) for the outer Cape and Nantucket where the projection is for 2 to 4 inches. Should it turn out to be colder than expected, then snowfall could be significantly higher as the heaviest precipitation should fall across the outer Cape and Nantucket. Going west and northwest of the I-95 corridor to central MA, northern and western RI, and much of CT, anticipate 2 to 4 inches of snow. Still further west toward the CT River Valley and Berkshires, anticipate generally 1 to 3 inches, although a few models depict 2 to 4 inches in that region as well.
Regarding the Patriots-Texans playoff game in Foxboro on Sunday afternoon, anticipate light snow by late morning becoming light to moderate during the game. There could be an inch or two of accumulation by late in the game with a total of 3 to 6 inches by the time the snow winds down early Monday morning.
Unless there is a dramatic last-minute change, will take a look at next week’s significant weather potential on Monday. Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant. In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted. It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information. This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)
The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large. Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences. For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.
Message issued January 17, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member
