Significant Weather Blog: Saturday, February 21, 2026 10 AM

Major Nor’easter Will Impact Southern New England Late Sunday Night and Monday with Heavy Snow, High Winds, and Coastal Erosion/Flooding

 Confidence is now high for a high impact storm across southern New England late Sunday night and Monday.  Across most of southern New England travel will likely become very difficult to nearly impossible late Sunday night through much of Monday.  Warning level snowfall will occur throughout southern New England with up to 2 feet possible in portions of eastern Massachusetts and northeast Rhode Island.  There is a risk of fairly widespread power outages over the Cape and Islands as well as adjacent southeast Massachusetts and southern Rhode Island.  Some coastal flooding and potentially severe beach erosion will occur during the Monday high tides with some linger effects possible for the early Tuesday morning high tide.  This will likely be a storm that many folks will remember for some time.

Following a discussion section, will look in somewhat more detail the various impacts now considered likely.

Discussion

Global and regional numerical prediction models are now reasonably in synch for an impactful nor’easter.  Most models track an intense low pressure center close to or a little inside the 40N 70W “benchmark” on Monday.  This storm is expected to contain copious amounts of moisture and have strong upper-level support as an upper trough deepens and becomes negatively tilted near the mid-Atlantic coast late Sunday night.  Rapid intensification of a surface low pressure center is expected off the mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night into Monday morning.  Strong upward motion is expected across southern New England with contributions from both a mid-level southerly warm conveyor belt and lower level easterly cold conveyer belt to wring out that copious moisture.  The storm will likely slow as it approaches our area but not likely stall at least not for a significant amount of time with it pulling away Monday evening.  Even so, this storm is expected to have notable intensity.  Temperatures should be cold enough for snow everywhere with just the possible exception of some sleet/rain mixing in over Nantucket and the outer elbow of the Cape.  The snow to liquid ratio will vary from the coast to the interior.  In fact, a wet, heavy consistency snow appears likely over the Cape and Islands.  The snow will be lighter in consistency further inland but not as fluffy as what we experienced with the major January snowstorm.

This storm will likely contain mesoscale bands of heavier snowfall surrounded by somewhat lighter snowfall.  Thus, some variation in total snowfall amounts is likely due to this banding, but it’s not feasible to identify those areas much in advance.

The various model projections depict a very strong low-level jet with this storm.  Winds of 60 to 70+ mph may prove damaging across the Cape and Islands as well as to some extent across the rest of the MA coastline and RI coastline.  The strong winds combined with a pasty wet snow may produce scattered to fairly widespread power outages across the Cape and Islands and adjacent southeast MA and southern RI.  Further inland, the combination of a somewhat lighter consistency of snow and relatively strong winds may produce blizzard or near blizzard conditions for a time Monday morning into early afternoon with low visibility and considerable blowing and drifting snow.

Am anticipating shoreline impacts even though the timing will likely preclude a worst-case scenario.  ENE or NE winds will have ramped up enough for a potential 2 to 3-foot storm surge around the time of the early Monday morning high tide, highest at Nantucket where there is a potential for moderate coastal flooding.  Waves a short distance offshore will likely build to between 12 and 18 feet by the time of the Monday early morning high tide and peak between 20 and 25 feet during the day on Monday.  High tide is around 3 AM in Boston and closer to 4 AM at Nantucket.  The combination of elevated water levels, high waves, and strong onshore winds will likely result in areas of moderate to severe erosion for the Monday high tide cycles and possibly to some extent in a few spots even for the early Tuesday morning high tide cycle.  A mitigating factor, however, is that the strongest onshore wind will likely occur near or a little after the Monday morning low tide.  This could be one of those situations where the tide will appear to not go out at low tide as one would normally expect.

Forecast

Snow: 

Light snow will likely overspread southern New England Sunday evening (most likely between 7 and 9 PM) and become heavy around or after midnight.  Heavy snow (accompanied by blowing and drifting) is expected Monday morning possibly into the early afternoon before tapering to light to moderate intensity.  Snow should end west to east Monday evening.  Snow will likely be relatively heavy/wet on the Cape Islands, southeast MA coast, and southern RI and possibly contribute to downed branches and powerlines.  The snow will be a lighter consistency (even though falling heavily) away from the coast where blizzard or near blizzard conditions may occur late Sunday night through Monday morning.

Projected Storm Total Snowfall:

Cape and Islands:  10 to 15 inches

Eastern and Central MA, RI, and most of CT:  12 to 20 inches with possibly up to around 2 feet along and either side of a Boston to Providence corridor (including Boston’s metro west and northeast RI).

Northwest CT and western MA (Connecticut River Valley and Berkshires):  6 to 10 inches

NYC:  12 to 20 inches

Washington, DC:  3 to 6 inches most likely (although a risk of 6 to 9 inches especially for the northeast suburbs)

Wind:

Northeast winds may gust as high as 70 to 80 mph across the Cape and Islands, 60 to 70 mph elsewhere along the MA coastline and RI immediate coastline, 50 to 60 mph 10 to 20 miles back from the coast in MA and RI as well as southern CT, and 40 to 50 mph across central MA, northwest RI, and northern CT.  The wind may contribute to downed branches and powerlines across the Cape and Islands as well as adjacent southeast MA and southern RI.  The combination of heavy snow and strong winds may produce a period of blizzard or near blizzard conditions over the rest of eastern and central MA and much of RI.

Shoreline Impacts:

Coastal Flooding: For the Monday early morning high tide, moderate coastal flooding possible at Nantucket Harbor and generally areas of minor coastal flooding elsewhere along MA east facing coastline.  For the Monday mid/late afternoon high tide, minor coastal flooding is possible along east and northeast facing coastlines of MA.  For the Tuesday early morning high tide, minor coastal flooding is still possible at Nantucket Harbor as well as the Bay side of the Cape.

Beach Erosion:  Moderate to severe beach erosion is likely around the time of the Monday high tides with possibly some lingering erosion around the Tuesday early morning high tides.  On Monday waves will reach between 20 and 25 feet just offshore on top of elevated water levels.

Marine:  Dangerous marine conditions expected with storm force winds with possible hurricane force gusts and waves up to 25 feet in the coastal waters on Monday.

Next Message

Will continue to monitor the development of this major storm and update with any significant changes.

About this Blog and Disclaimer

The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary.  For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box.  For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.

A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant.  In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted.  It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information.  This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).

The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author.  Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.

Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)

The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large.  Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences.  For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.

Message issued February 21, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member