Significant Weather Blog: Friday, March 13, 2026 10 AM

Risk of Strong Winds and Heavy Rain/Flooding Monday into Monday Night

 A high amplitude sharp upper trough will spawn an associated strong surface low pressure center that will track across the Great Lakes region late in the weekend into early next week.  Southern New England will be in the warm sector with strong southerly winds and pulses of heavy rain.

Wind

All the global numerical prediction models depict a strong low-level jet of wind that peaks across southeast New England late Monday afternoon into the evening.  At this time of the year, it’s typically tricky to calculate how much wind mixes to the surface, since the relatively cold ocean in late winter/early spring often results in a fairly strong inversion that precludes mixing much wind down to the surface.  However, warm low-level temperatures may at least partially offset the cool ocean water, especially a short distance inland from the immediate Rhode Island and Massachusetts south coast.  Southerly winds may gust between 50 and 60 mph across Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts late Monday afternoon into the evening.  This could cause some tree damage and scattered power outages.

Heavy Rain/Flooding

That low level jet will bring very moist subtropical air into southern New England Monday and result in pulses of moderate to heavy rain.  Anticipate a widespread 1.00 to 1.50 inches of rain across southern New England with one or more swaths of 1.50 to 2 inches of rain likely.  There may be highly localized 2 to 3-inch amounts where more persistent heavier downpours occur.  The rain combined with snowmelt and/or saturated ground from recent snowmelt may result in some small stream and river flooding.  Among the main stem rivers in Rhode Island, the Pawtuxet, Pawcatuck, and Wood Rivers could at least go into minor flood.  In Massachusetts, the Assabet, Deerfield, Sudbury, and Taunton Rivers are among those that may have a risk of flooding in spots.  In Connecticut, the Housatonic River and the lower Connecticut River from Hartford to Middle Haddam have a fairly high risk of at least minor flooding.  For more information on river forecasts go to the National Weather Service and click on the River and Lakes icon, or go to the Northeast River Forecast Center.

Thunderstorms

Embedded thunderstorms with especially heavy downpours and strong wind gusts are possible as well late Monday afternoon into early evening ahead of a cold front.  The air mass Monday afternoon/early evening looks to be fairly unstable with the approaching cold front inducing fairly strong uplift.  It’s possible that thunderstorms and/or heavier showers will organize in a west to east moving line late Monday afternoon/early Monday evening.  There is at least a slight risk that strong wind gusts associated with a few thunderstorms may produce isolated damage beyond the broader area of strong winds expected over southeast MA and RI.  In the event of any severe thunderstorms, closely monitor your local National Weather Service for any warnings that may be issued.

Next Message

Will continue to monitor this potential significant weather event and update as necessary.

About this Blog and Disclaimer

The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary.  For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box.  For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.

The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author.  Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.

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The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large.  Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences.  For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.

Message issued March 13, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member