Significant Weather Blog: Friday, January 16, 2026 2 PM

Weekly Significant Weather Outlook – This Weekend Update

 A couple of winter weather systems will affect southern New England this holiday weekend.  The first one will produce generally light snow across much of interior southern New England on Saturday.  The second one is a coastal system with greater uncertainty than usual for a potential event less than 3 days away.  There is some reluctance to produce any message, since neither system is expected to have a truly major impact.  Nevertheless, the second system, most likely making its closest approach Sunday night, has generated some interest in the media and is an interesting case from a weather perspective.

Saturday Light Snow

A couple of weak upper-level pulses of energy with modest moisture will likely produce a couple periods of light snow over interior southern New England and light rain, possibly mixed with wet snow, along the coastal plain (including greater Boston).  Generally 1 to 2 inches of snow is projected for interior southern New England west/northwest of the I-95 corridor.  In spite of the cold temperatures today, the boundary layer closer to the coast looks to be too warm Saturday to support snow except possibly a slushy coating as the precipitation winds down late Saturday.  Somewhat heavier amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible across the Berkshires and the higher terrain of the Worcester Hills.

Late Sunday/Sunday Night

There is an unusually high amount of uncertainty on the track and intensity of a coastal/offshore low pressure center during this time.  The source of the uncertainty appears to center on whether there will be any phasing between energy embedded in a southern jet stream and energy embedded in a northern jet stream.  The weather models often struggle to resolve situations that may result in phasing since small errors in timing of those energy packets can make a big difference.  A modest majority of the computer guidance calls for little or no phasing with the low pressure center remaining weak and passing far enough offshore for only a glancing blow to southeast MA.  Nevertheless, a significantly large minority of operational and ensemble model projections depict a strong low pressure center closer to the coast (due to at least some phasing between northern and southern stream energy) with a more significant impact to a larger portion of southern New England.  For those who tend to track individual models, the GFS remains more aggressive than the ECMWF, and the AI model versions of both the ECMWF and GFS appear to be more aggressive in at least their last few runs.  Do not yet have much of a track record on the verification of AI model runs so unsure of how much faith to put in them.  The Canadian model continues to be fairly consistently on the side of heavier precipitation while the UKMET model has seemed to have gone back and forth over its last few runs.  There is also some question as to whether the low-level temperature profile over the Cape and Islands can support all snow or if a mix would be more likely.

With some reluctance to state anything about potential amounts, the best guess scenario seems to point toward 1 to 3 inches over the Cape (greater chance for heavier precipitation but more marginal temperatures) and Boston’s Metro West with a potential band of 2 to 4 inches along and just east or southeast of the I-95 corridor in southeast MA including greater Boston.  Looks like probably an inch or less west of I-495.  Yet, this is all very tentative given the unusually large range of model solutions, and the potential exists for more or less snow.  Thus, the best advice is to monitor the latest forecasts and any statements from the National Weather Service during the course of this weekend.  As far as the game in Foxborough on Sunday afternoon, there is a reasonably good chance of some snow falling or starting to fall during the game, but most likely any accumulating snow would occur toward the end or after the game, although the weather models also depict some timing differences.

Will update this message on Saturday if better clarity can be provided.  Otherwise, will take a look at next week’s significant weather potential on Monday.  Have a nice weekend.

About this Blog and Disclaimer

The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary.  For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box.  For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.

A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant.  In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted.  It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information.  This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).

The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author.  Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.

Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)

The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large.  Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences.  For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.

Message issued January 16, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member