Significant Weather Blog: Friday, February 20, 2026 3 PM
Light to Moderate Winter Weather Impacts Anticipated Tonight
Major Winter Storm Potential for Late Sunday Night/Monday
– Especially for the Southeast Half of Southern New England
The forecast for the storm now underway as this is being written has not changed much. The potential coastal storm for late Sunday night and Monday has been on many people’s “radar” for most of the week. There is growing evidence that this storm will have a very major impact on a large portion of southern New England. People in southern New England, especially in eastern and central MA (including greater Boston and the Cape and Islands), RI, and eastern/southern CT, should prepare for heavy snow and strong winds (especially near the coast) for late Sunday night and Monday. Will touch upon the event at hand and then will discuss Monday’s storm. For both events, there is a discussion section followed by the forecast section. If you’re not interested in what seem like somewhat technical discussions, feel free to scroll down to the forecast sections.
Late this Afternoon and Tonight
Discussion: A surface low pressure center moving across the Great Lakes toward the Adirondacks will weaken. A warm front (technically a warm occlusion) was approaching southern New England this afternoon with overrunning moisture. A secondary low pressure center will develop south of New England this evening and move east out to sea by Saturday morning. The intrusion of a warm layer aloft as far north as the Mass Pike (I-90) or perhaps between the Mass Pike and Route 2, will cause a variety of precipitation types over much of the area. The presence of mixed precipitation and likely fairly low snow to liquid ratios will suppress snowfall accumulations to some extent. Nevertheless, plowable snow is expected across most of northern MA (especially along and north of the Route 2 corridor). Across northern CT, central and east central MA up to the Mass Pike corridor, snow will likely mix with and change to sleet and possibly even some freezing rain for a time this evening. Near the south coast and east coast south of Boston, any snow to start will likely change to rain, possibly mixed with sleet. The precipitation should change back to all snow most areas later this evening for a time before ending or tapering off to flurries as the secondary low center takes hold and cuts off the warm air intrusion aloft and the surface wind along the coast shifts from onshore to offshore.
As noted yesterday, there are a couple of additional details that could influence snowfall totals for this event. Marginal surface temperatures that will result in relatively low snow to liquid ratios (probably less than 10 to 1 except in the higher elevations). This will likely suppress accumulations to some extent (even more so over CT and southern RI where precipitation duration is anticipated to be shorter). In addition, just how quickly the secondary low develops this evening will impact the intensity of precipitation and strength of the uplift in the dendritic snow growth zone (generally between -12C and -18) before the atmosphere begins to dry out at mid and high levels (including that dendritic snow growth zone).
Forecast Accumulations: Anticipate total snowfall of 4 to 7 inches across northern MA (Route 2 corridor and north including northern Middlesex and northern Essex Counties) with highest amounts over the higher terrain (above 1000 feet) of north central MA and the Berkshires. Further south, anticipate 2 to 4 inches of snow or snow/sleet accumulation along the Mass Pike corridor from Springfield to Worcester to Boston’s Metro West. In the Boston area itself, anticipate 1 to 3 inches extending southwest into northern RI and northeast CT. Elsewhere, estimate a total accumulation of just 1 or 2 inches, most of it after the change back to snow later this evening.
Impacts: Snow may have some impact on the evening commute in much of interior southern New England (including Boston’s northern and western suburbs), but surface temperatures near or even a little above freezing will likely mitigate accumulation on treated roadways. In addition to the precipitation itself, cooling temperatures later tonight will likely result in icy spots. Plowable snow is anticipated across northern MA. Keep in mind that although the amounts may not be all that high, this will likely be a heavier wet snow than some prior storms across northern MA. In addition, there could be the possibility of a dense icy mix of snow, sleet, and even ice from freezing rain across southwest and south central MA.
Late Sunday Night into Monday
Discussion: The GFS model, once seemingly thought to be an outlier, has remained amazingly consistent for the past several runs. The other numerical prediction models have rather dramatically shifted the low center track to the west in the past 24 hours and are coming more in line with the GFS. One possible, if not likely, cause is that a very strong, energetic trough digging south from Alaska has begun to be better sampled in the North America upper air radiosonde network. Often, we must wait until energy over the North Pacific or arctic enters or begins to influence the upper air observations over North America. Usually, that better sampling occurs by 72 hours before an event, although this can vary from one weather pattern to the next. In this case, it appears that the trough in the North Pacific is inducing a stronger ridge of high pressure over western North America which in turn is leading to a more amplified upper trough digging toward the central Appalachians. As this upper trough approaches the mid-Atlantic coast, it is now expected to take on a negative tilt orientation and instigate rapid surface cyclogenesis (low pressure formation/intensification) just off the mid-Atlantic coast (where there is a tight surface temperature gradient thanks to the Gulf Stream). Given this weather pattern evolution, the coastal storm is now expected to move northeast toward or a short distance outside of the 40N 70W “benchmark” (a prime location for a major southern New England snowstorm given sufficiently cold air).
There remains some uncertainty as to the northwest edge of the heavy snow given some variation in the projected track among the various deterministic and ensemble model runs. Nevertheless, there appears to be a consensus of model output for 6+ inches of snow as far west as the Worcester area and potentially as far west as the CT River Valley in MA as well as across much of CT. This may shift some in future projections.
Precipitation type should be all snow with the possible exception of Nantucket and the elbow of the Cape where enough warm air might approach to cause some mixing with rain.
This storm will likely be juicy with potentially 1 to 2 inches of water equivalent precipitation along and southeast of a Boston to Providence line. The water equivalent amounts will taper off to the northwest, but snowfall could be augmented a little by higher snow to liquid ratios.
All indications point to an intense storm even if there remains some uncertainty in the exact track. Northeast winds may gust over 60 mph over the Cape and Islands and over 50 mph along the rest of the MA and RI coastline. This alone could cause power disruptions. Combined with heavy snow, this also presents potential blizzard conditions if the snow is of a dry enough consistency (hard to be sure this far out). And then there remains the potential for shoreline impacts. As luck would have it, the strongest onshore winds will likely occur between the Monday morning low tide and the mid-afternoon high tide, which is not particularly high. Nevertheless, at least minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the MA east coast during the Monday early morning high tide (when winds will have started to ramp up), that Monday mid-afternoon high tide, and possibly the early Tuesday morning high tide along the Cape Cod Bay shoreline and Nantucket Harbor. Of potentially greater concern could be beach erosion from elevated water levels and high breaking surf. Waves just offshore may exceed 25 feet with this storm.
Forecast: Snow will likely spread into southern New England Sunday night after midnight, although there could be a few flurries earlier during the evening. Potentially heavy snow Monday especially eastern MA into central MA, RI, and much of CT, but there is an increasing risk that all of southern New England will receive plowable snow. Blizzard conditions are possible over eastern MA and RI. Snow may mix with some rain over Nantucket and the elbow of the Cape. Snow should taper off to flurries Monday evening.
Possible snowfall accumulations: The potential exists for greater than 6 inches of snow across much of southern New England east of the Connecticut River Valley in MA, all of RI, and much of CT (all the way to NYC). Although it’s still too early to be very specific, there is an increasing risk of snowfall exceeding a foot along and southeast of the Boston to Providence corridor.
Next Message
Will update this blog on Saturday for the late Sunday night/Monday storm.
About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant. In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted. It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information. This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)
The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large. Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences. For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.
Message issued February 20, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member
