Significant Weather Blog: Sunday, February 22, 2026 10 AM

Major Nor’easter Will Bring Heavy Snow, High Winds, and Coastal Erosion/Flooding Late Tonight and Monday

Yesterday’s blog remains relevant and appears below this update for reference.  This morning’s message focuses on a few refinements as we approach the start of a major nor’easter for southern New England. Please read the previous significant weather blog (for February 21) for further storm details.

Discussion

Rapid cyclogenesis (i.e., bombogenesis with rapid surface pressure falls) will occur just off the mid-Atlantic coast tonight.  Numerical prediction models are in agreement that an intense low pressure center will pass near or slightly inside the 40N 70W “benchmark”, a classic track for a major nor’easter for southern New England.

Very strong upward motion is expected in the dendritic snow growth zone (-12C to -18C) during early to mid-morning on Monday may result in periods with snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour.  Inch per hour snowfall rates may persist into the afternoon for eastern and east central MA and RI.  Heavy snowfall rates combined with strong winds will also result in whiteout or near whiteout conditions after midnight through Monday morning, likely persisting into early to mid-afternoon in eastern MA.

As is typical for nor’easters such as this one, expect a coastal front to form during the storm – most likely along or a little southeast of a Boston to Providence line.  The wind will be especially strong southeast of this line with the snow being of a wetter consistency.  This may result in fairly widespread power outages across southeast MA (including Cape and Islands) and southern Rhode Island.  Although heavy snow is expected throughout southern New England, the heaviest accumulations may lie along and 20 to 30 miles northwest of this coastal front due to especially strong moisture convergence and especially strong uplift.  There may be another mesoscale band of heavy snow further west (possibly somewhere over central MA and eastern CT) but unsure where such a band may set up.

Have higher confidence of moderate coastal flooding and severe beach erosion across vulnerable locations on Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and the outer Cape as wind and waves ramp up quickly during the early morning hours.  The Monday early morning high tide is the most concerning given that ramp up in conditions and that being the higher astronomical high tide, but minor coastal flooding and beach erosion will likely be issues for the Monday mid/late afternoon high tide and in a few spots even for the early Tuesday morning high tide.  The beach erosion during this storm along vulnerable outer Cape, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard shorelines may be a major issue.

Forecast and Impacts

Timing:    Snow will spread southwest to northeast across southern New England between 6 and 10 PM.  The snow will initially be light but become heavy after 10 PM.  Recommendation would be for evening activities across southern New England to end by 9 PM with travelers being off the roads by that time.  Heavy snow accompanied by strong winds will cause whiteout or near whiteout conditions overnight through Monday morning and probably into early/mid-afternoon across eastern MA.  Travel late tonight and most of Monday is expected to be extremely difficult, if not impossible.  Snow will begin to ease in intensity west to east during Monday afternoon but not really taper off to flurries until Monday evening.

Snowfall projections:

Nantucket:  5 to 10 inches (heavy snow will likely mix with and possibly change to heavy rain)

Mid to outer Cape and Martha’s Vineyard: 10 to 15 inches (snow may mix with rain for a time across the outer Cape)

Upper Cape:  12 to 18 inches

Rest of Eastern MA and central MA and RI:  15 to 25 inches.  An area prone to highest amounts would appear to be along and 20 to 30 miles northwest of a Boston to Providence line (including Boston’s western and southwestern suburbs and northern/central RI).

Western MA:  10 to 15 inches

CT:  10 to 20 inches (highest eastern and southern CT)

NYC:  16 to 22 inches

Washington, DC: 3 to 6 inches but higher amounts possible in northeast suburbs

Special note:  This will be an especially wet, heavy snow across southeast MA and much of RI.  Further inland, the snow will not be as wet and heavy but still of a wetter consistency than the January storm.  Thus, extra caution is advised for those shoveling.

Land impacts: 

Blizzard conditions for a period Monday morning (and possibly into the early afternoon) for much of eastern MA, RI, and southern CT where the National Weather Service has issued Blizzard Warnings.  Near blizzard conditions will likely also occur across east central MA (as far west at the Worcester area) and northeast CT at times Monday morning.  The combination of heavy falling snow and strong winds will cause whiteout or near whiteout conditions in these areas, especially during the 3 AM to 11 AM timeframe.  Near whiteout conditions may persist well into the afternoon at times across eastern MA due to strong winds and the snow taking on a somewhat drier consistency and so easier to blow around.

Wind and potential power outages: The potential exists for widespread power outages southeast of a Boston to Providence line including the Cape and Islands due to the combination of heavy wet snow and strong winds (gusts 70 to 80 mph Cape and Islands and 60 to 70 mph rest of MA and RI coastline).  Scattered power outages are possible along and northwest of a Boston to Providence line.  Wind gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph are likely over exposed terrain in central MA, northern RI, and eastern CT.  The strong winds will cause considerable blowing and drifting snow, especially along and northwest of a Boston to Providence line.

Shoreline Impacts:

• Early Monday morning high tide (around 3 AM Boston and 4 AM Nantucket): Moderate coastal flooding likely Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard.  Minor to moderate coastal flooding likely along portions of the Plymouth County coast and the Cape.  Minor coastal flooding Boston area to Cape Ann.  Large waves may cause spotty damage along vulnerable shore locations and will likely result in severe beach erosion along the ocean side of the outer Cape and vulnerable shorelines of Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard.
• Monday mid/late afternoon high tide (around 3:30 PM Boston and 4:30 to 5:00 PM Nantucket): Generally minor coastal flooding but potential for more severe beach erosion due to high waves.
• Tuesday early AM High Tide: Minor coastal flooding possible Nantucket Harbor and the Bay side of the Cape.  Potential for some continued beach erosion.

Marine Impacts:

Storm force winds with hurricane force gusts expected across most of the southern New England coastal waters on Monday.  Waves between 25 and 30 feet are likely.  Even the Boston buoy in Massachusetts Bay may reach peak significant wave heights between 25 and 30 feet!

Next Message

This will likely be the last message on this storm.  For the latest statements, forecasts, and warnings on this storm, consult the National Weather Service information.  Will issue the weekly significant weather outlook on Monday.

About this Blog and Disclaimer

The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary.  For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box.  For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.

A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant.  In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted.  It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information.  This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).

The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author.  Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.

Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)

The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large.  Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences.  For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.

Message issued February 22, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member