Significant Weather Blog: Wednesday, January 28, 2026 5 PM

Potential for High Impact Storm for the Cape and Islands Sunday and Sunday Night

There is high confidence of an intense coastal storm forming off the Carolina coast this weekend.  There is still low confidence, however, on the track as this storm moves toward the northeast.  The main impetus for the start of this blog series is the reasonable chance that this storm could track close enough to produce heavy snow and strong winds on the Cape, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard.  There remains a possibility of at least moderate impacts as far northwest as the Boston-Providence corridor.  Although not totally out of the question yet, any impacts further to the northwest over central and western MA and CT look to be fairly minimal.

Discussion

There continues to be a large spread in the computer model guidance for the storm expected to develop off the Carolina coast this weekend.  A sharpening and digging trough will likely trigger cyclogenesis (formation of a low pressure center) along a low-level temperature gradient.  This tight temperature gradient infers what meteorologists refer to as baroclinicity and constitutes potential energy that can be released when an upper-level trough approaches.  There is fairly high confidence that an intense storm with strong winds over a large area will develop off the Carolina coast and significantly impact the western Atlantic region.  There is much less confidence in just how close to the coast this storm will form and then how close to the coast it will track toward the northeast.  The current consensus of most global models, including their multitude of ensemble runs, is that this storm will track some distance offshore but close enough to potentially have a significant impact on the Cape and Islands.  There are a few ensemble runs that track the system close enough to highly impact most or all of southern New England, but these are in the minority.  At the other end of the spectrum, very few of the ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian ensembles depict a complete miss.  An exception, however, is the UKMET model, which does show a complete miss.  As the primary instigating trough energy swings south from the Canadian arctic, we should have a clearer picture on the evolution of this storm – probably by late Thursday afternoon.

Forecast and Impacts

The potential exists for the Cape, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket to receive over 6 inches of snow accompanied by strong northeast winds Sunday and Sunday night.  The combination of wind (gusts over 50 mph) and heavy (but powdery) snow could produce a period of blizzard or near blizzard conditions, providing the heavy precipitation field reaches as far northwest as the Cape and Islands.

There may also be some coastline impacts as well.  There is a relatively high astronomical tide mid Sunday morning when northeast onshore winds will likely be increasing but still hours before approaching their peak.  The peak onshore winds will likely occur closer to the Sunday late evening high tide, which is considerably lower than the morning high tide.  Thus, anticipate some coastal erosion due to high water levels and wave action, but the timing may allow us to evade more serious erosion and coastal flooding impacts.  By the time of the late Monday morning tide (which is astronomically high), the wind will have likely shifted to more offshore (except for the Cape Cod Bay side from Dennis to Truro) and begun to decrease.

Outside of the Cape and Islands, there remains a possibility of plowable snow as far northwest as the Boston to Providence I-95 corridor, but confidence remains quite low. Also, there is a possibility of some ocean enhanced snow (like lake effect snow only arctic air flowing over the ocean) along the South Shore from Weymouth to Plymouth.   Still further northwest toward eastern CT and central MA, there could be a sharp cutoff in any significant snowfall.  We will probably have a little more confidence on where that cutoff may end up being by late Thursday afternoon.

Next Message

Will plan to issue an updated message on Thursday – probably in the afternoon.

About this Blog and Disclaimer

The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary.  For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box.  For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.

A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant.  In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted.  It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information.  This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).

The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author.  Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.

Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)

The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large.  Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences.  For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.

 Message issued January 28, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member