Significant Weather Blog: Saturday, January 24, 2026 3 PM
Major Snow Storm for Southern New England
Nearly all of southern New England will receive between 1 and 2 feet of snow. The precipitation looks to be all snow except sleet may mix with the snow over the very immediate south coast and the Cape and Islands (with Nantucket probably changing over to sleet and rain for a time early Monday morning). This message will feature a weather discussion, the forecast (timing and amounts), and a section on impacts. Confidence on the outcome of this storm is relatively high.
Discussion
The suite of numerical weather prediction models projects the surface low pressure center to southeast of Nantucket early Monday morning. On the synoptic scale, warm, moist subtropical air will override the arctic air mass now in place over southern New England to create upward motion of copious moisture which in turn will result in heavy precipitation. Deep cold air over southern New England will result in the precipitation type being all snow except along the immediate south coast, the Cape, and Islands where sleet may mix with the snow (but after hours of heavy snow) due to a protruding layer of warm air aloft (probably 5 to 7 thousand feet). There’s a higher probability of that warm layer reaching Nantucket and being deep enough to cause the snow to mix with sleet and possibly even some rain.
Taking a somewhat more detailed look, it looks as though there will be strong upward motion of moist air in the optimum snow growth region between -12C and -18C throughout southern New England. This should result in large dendrite snowflake growth for efficient accumulating snow. The snow to liquid ratio will be quite high over most of the region and result in a significant fluff factor. The snow over the Cape and Islands will have a lower snow to liquid ratio (i.e., a wetter snow). The more intense accumulation rates will diminish Monday morning as drier air moves into the snow growth zone resulting in smaller snowflakes and less efficient accumulation during the day Monday.
As we see with a number of our nor’easters, a coastal front may set up over eastern MA. To better understand this, note that the wind flow is the result of three forces: 1) pressure gradient force that by itself would have air flowing directly from high to low pressure, 2) Coriolis force due to the earth’s rotation that is proportional to the wind speed (higher the speed, the higher the force), and 3) friction which acts to slow the wind speed, and by reducing the strength of the Coriolis force, causes the air flow to bend more toward the center of low pressure. What happens during a nor’easter is that an ENE wind over the ocean reduces speed and becomes more NNE as it encounters greater friction onshore. This results in both speed and directional convergence, which in turn enhances uplift of moist air as well as the development of a quasi-stationary front with a sharp temperature contrast. We will likely see such a coastal front develop with this storm with temperatures probably in the 20s to the east of the front and in the teens to the west. We are likely to see some enhanced snowfall along and just west of this coastal front.
There may be additional mesoscale bands of enhanced snowfall, but the dynamics are more complicated and more challenging to predict where these will set up. The main point is that the entire region will have heavy snow from the overrunning of warm, moist air over a very cold dome, but small scale factors could result in spots with still higher snowfall.
There may also be some heavier accumulations due to orographic uplift (air being forced up by mountains/hills) especially over the east slopes of the Berkshires and perhaps a little more subtly over the Worcester Hills and Monadnock region of southwest NH.
The heaviest snow likely reaching rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will occur from late Sunday afternoon to the early morning hours of Monday (roughly 3 PM Sunday to around 3 AM Monday). Wrap around lighter snow is expected to linger through Monday due to an approaching upper trough in the northern jet stream.
Forecast
Timing: Light snow will approach southwest CT around daybreak Sunday and then spread over the rest of southern New England during the morning. Snow will become heavier during the afternoon. Although snow may have started, most morning church services/masses in central/eastern MA and RI will probably not be highly impacted. However, travel will become increasingly difficult during the afternoon and likely extremely difficult/nearly impossible from mid or late afternoon into the overnight. The snow will linger into Monday at lesser intensity but may not totally taper off until Monday evening in most areas.
Amounts: My projection is that snow will accumulate 14 to 22 inches across nearly all of southern New England. Along the south coast, Cape Cod, Block Island, and Martha’s Vineyard, anticipate 10 to 14 inches with somewhat lower snow to liquid ratios and possibly some sleet mixing in. For Nantucket, anticipate 8 to 12 inches given a still higher likelihood of some mixed precipitation there. Think that greater Boston (especially suburbs to the north, west, and southwest) may be toward the upper portion of the range with 18 to 22 inches.
Elsewhere: Looks like 8 to 14 inches for New York City where there will likely be some sleet that mixes with the snow later in the storm. Still higher amounts of 12 to 16 inches are likely in the New York City northern suburbs. Looks like 8 to 10 inches of snow for Washington, DC where there will likely be a transition to sleet. Higher amounts of 10 to 12 inches are likely across the northwest and northern suburbs of Washington, DC. And further south across southern VA, the Carolinas, northern GA, and portions of MS and LA, the issue is more likely to be damaging ice (with downed trees and widespread power outages).
Impacts: This storm will have major ground and air travel impacts across southern New England Sunday into Monday. Travel will be especially difficult, if not nearly impossible, Sunday afternoon and night. Airlines will likely need some recovery time. People are encouraged to adjust plans as necessary.
For most of southern New England, this will be a fluffy snow. The exception will be the Cape and Islands where the combination of wetter snow and wind gusts 40 to 45 mph may cause scattered power outages. Outside of the Cape and Islands, wind gusts between 30 and 35 mph may cause some drifting and blowing snow Sunday night into Monday.
More Information
For up-to-date information from the National Weather Service on any specific areas of the country, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map. For southern New England, monitor the latest forecasts, warnings, and statements by going to weather.gov/box.
Next Message
This may be the final message on this storm unless a significant change is anticipated.
About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.
A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant. In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted. It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information. This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)
The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large. Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences. For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.
Message issued January 24, 2026 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member
