Significant Weather Outlook: Monday, December 22, 2025 11 AM

Significant Weather Outlook for the Coming Week

 Will There Be a White Christmas?

 Winter Weather Possible Late Friday/Saturday but High Uncertainty

 Tuesday/Tuesday Night

Although it’s not a guarantee, it looks like a fairly high probability for just enough snow to qualify for a white Christmas across at least most of interior southern New England.  Light snow Tuesday afternoon/evening will likely accumulate 1 to 3 inches of snow along and northwest of the I-95 corridor in MA and RI as well as all of CT Tuesday and Tuesday evening.  Southeast of the I-95 corridor in southeast MA and the Cape, confidence is lower although there’s a chance even there for a coating to an inch.  The Islands (Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Block Island) will likely receive mostly rain.  Here’s a little more information on this system.  Although this is by no means a major storm, it could have some light to moderate impacts on Tuesday/Tuesday evening travel.

Light snow will overspread southern New England mid-morning to midday on Tuesday as warmer air overrides a lower layer of colder denser air.  The warm front will likely slow or stall due to northwest flow aloft.  A surface low pressure area moves toward northern New England (not typically a favorable track for snow in southern New England) but then redevelops southeast of New England before moving offshore.  The precipitation should fall as light snow along and northwest of I-95 between Providence and Boston but will likely mix with if not change to light rain along coastal southeast New England (including coastal Plymouth County, the Cape, and the Islands) due to an above freezing boundary layer thanks to ocean temperatures still in the mid 40s.  There may be a window Tuesday night when the precipitation changes back to wet snow over southeast MA and the upper/mid Cape, and light snow or mixed snow/rain showers from weak ocean effect (cold air flowing over warm water) may linger well into Wednesday on the Cape.  In general, am expecting 1 to 3 inches of snow northwest of the I-95 corridor and a coating up to an inch along and southeast of I-95 (but with greater uncertainty).  There could be isolated 3 to 4-inch amounts in the northern Worcester Hills and the higher elevations of the Berkshires.  Minor to moderate travel impacts are possible, mainly over the higher terrain of the interior and possibly for a time Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning over southeast MA and the upper/mid Cape when precipitation may change back to light snow or snow showers with colder temperatures.  There could be some impact on the Tuesday evening commute heading north and west of Boston and Providence.

Mid Week Holiday Travel

For the most part, fairly benign weather is expected for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with the possible exception of a few light snow or mixed rain/snow showers on the Cape Wednesday morning.  For most of southern New England, no travel impacts are anticipated those two days.

An exception to benign travel weather is expected over much of California for the upcoming holiday period when heavy rain (with flooding) is expected at lower elevations and heavy snow (being measured in feet) is anticipated for the higher elevations.  A robust atmospheric river is expected to persist/intensify over that region.  Anyone traveling to the west coast, especially California, should check the latest forecasts and adjust travel plans if necessary.

Late Friday into Saturday

The weather outlook for Friday/Saturday is somewhat interesting and quite uncertain.  Upper-level energy and a fairly weak surface low pressure area but with moderate amounts of moisture will travel along a low level thermal boundary late Friday into Saturday morning.  Computer models have been widely variant on just where this low-level thermal boundary sets up and where significant wintry precipitation could fall.  For example, the Canadian and UKMET operational models depict a moderate snowstorm across northern New England extending into northern MA, the ECMWF depicts a moderate snowstorm over southwest CT and the greater NYC area, and the overnight GFS depicted a rather robust snowstorm for the Washington, DC area, keeping southern New England dry!  The latest GFS run is further north with the heaviest snow between Philadelphia and New York City.  The tendency has been for a colder solution given a fairly strong high pressure center passing across Quebec (many earlier model runs projected mostly rain across southern New England).  The other potential twist is that there could be shallow cold air overrun by enough warmer air to set up a potential ice scenario.  We will need to evaluate future model runs and trends.  Taking latest trends and a consensus of recent model runs, am thinking there will be enough deep cold air and enough moisture for a light to moderate snowfall across much of southern New England late Friday into Saturday.  Will provide an updated message blog later in the week if there should be an increased risk for a significant winter weather event for southern New England.

Late in the Weekend

Finally, still another system may cross the area late Sunday/Sunday night.  This is quite far out and the precipitation type (rain or snow?) and amount are very uncertain.

About this Blog and Disclaimer

The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary.  For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box.  For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.

A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serves to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant.  In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted.  It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information.  This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).

The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author.  Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.

Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)

The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large.  Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences.  For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.

Message issued December 22, 2025 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member