Significant Weather Outlook: Friday, October 24, 2025 12 PM

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK

Since this blog’s author will be traveling out of the country for a couple of weeks, a special outlook is being issued today (Friday October 24) versus the beginning of the week.  Note that there will be no blog messages after this message through November 10.  The next significant weather blog message or outlook will be issued Tuesday November 11.  Since a lot can happen (especially in New England) in a two-week period, check local National Weather Service information (weather.gov/box for most of southern New England) for the latest weather forecasts, including information on any potential hazardous weather.  As luck should have it, the weather pattern looks active for the next week or so.

This message will note the following potential significant weather developments over the next one to two weeks:

• Potential nor’easter mid to late next week
• Potential major hurricane in the Caribbean with risk of catastrophic rainfall and damaging winds for Jamaica and portions of Hispaniola and Cuba
• Period of high astronomical high tides November 3-9

Potential Nor’easter Mid to Late Next Week

Essentially all global models depict a sharp (and possibly cut-off) upper trough moving to the southern Appalachians and phasing with another upper trough or two in the northern stream during the middle of next week.  This complex development in turn will likely spawn a surface coastal low pressure system off the mid-Atlantic coast.  Depending upon the strength and track of this coastal low, southern New England may encounter significant rain, wind, and coastal wave activity (especially in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame).  Fortunately, the astronomical tides remain quite low next week.  Although there could be some beach erosion, any coastal flooding is likely to be minor.  It is possible that this nor’easter could infuse moisture from a tropical system that will be lifting out of the Caribbean.  There is also the possibility of a secondary low on the heels of the first.  This is far enough out and associated with an especially complex weather pattern to result in very low confidence on any specifics.  Southern New Englanders should monitor the latest information from the National Weather Service.  Conditions may become especially hazardous for mariners off the New England coast by the middle portion of next week.

Melissa

Tropical Storm Melissa Friday morning October 24 is projected to intensify into a hurricane and then further intensify to a major hurricane over the weekend if it steers clear of the higher mountains of Jamaica.  The water temperature is very warm in this part of the Caribbean Sea, moisture is plentiful, and the vertical wind shear is expected to lessen.  This storm looks to threaten Jamaica especially but also portions of southwest Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend into early next week and then possibly the Bahamas by the middle of next week.  A ridge of mid level high pressure is expected to block Melissa from moving very far north through the weekend and into early next week.  Thus, a slow drift to the west is expected possibly taking Melissa along or just off the Jamaican south coast and then west coast – perhaps as worst case scenario as one could imagine for Jamaica.  Jamaica and parts of Hispaniola and Cuba are at risk for a long duration of damaging winds, excessive rainfall, and storm surge.  In fact, the long duration could result in 1 to 2 feet of rain and as a consequence catastrophic flash flooding and landslides in hilly areas.  This looks to be a potentially life-threatening situation for Jamaica and portions of Haiti and Cuba.

Heading into next week, that fairly sharp trough developing over the southern Appalachians will induce Melissa to move northward.  Most model projections bring Melissa across eastern or east central Cuba, through the Bahamas, and then northeast over the open western Atlantic (although once again Bermuda may be impacted).  An uncomfortable number of ensemble runs of most global models, however, paint a possible alternate scenario of Melissa being “captured” by that upper trough versus being “pushed” offshore.  If that should happen (and it’s a big if at this time), Melissa could track closer to the U.S. coast with a slight risk of even curling into the coast (somewhere in the Northeast or southeast Canada) or merging with the extratropical surface coastal low discussed above (resulting in an especially intense hybrid storm (liken to a nor’easter on tropical steroids).  Although such alternative scenarios do not appear likely at this time, they cannot be ruled out given this depiction on a number of ensemble runs from the ECMWF (legacy and AI version), Canadian, and even GFS models.  The interaction of a tropical system with a mid-latitude mid to upper level trough can be very complex and not always very easy for either global or hurricane-centric models to resolve.  An important factor will likely be the sharpness and southward extension of that upper trough over the southeast U.S. as well as how quickly that trough itself slides to the east or northeast.  The main message at this time is that Melissa should be monitored closely until there is greater confidence that it will be tracking away from land masses.  All interests in the Caribbean, Bahamas, and even the U.S. east coast from Florida to Maine should monitor the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center (nhc.noaa.gov).

High Tides

Due to the gravitational pull of the Moon in line with the gravitational pull of the Sun, the astronomical high tides will be particularly high November 3 to November 9.  Any significant onshore wind from either an extratropical or tropical system could result in coastal flooding and/or beach erosion during this time period.

Special Note

I will be traveling out of the country October 25 to November 10.  No blog messages will be available during this time.  Please check local National Weather Service information (weather.gov/box for most of southern New England) for any potential weather hazards.

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About this Blog and Disclaimer

The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary.  For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box.  For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map.  For the latest information on Atlantic basin hurricane activity, access the National Hurricane Center website at nhc.noaa.gov.

A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serve to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant.  In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted.  It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information.  This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).

The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author.  Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.

Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)

The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large.  Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences.  For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.

Southern New England Weather Conference

If you are reading this message, then you probably have an interest in the weather and/or climate of our region.  Consider attending the Southern New England Weather Conference this Saturday October 25 at the Meditech facility in Canton.  There is a fascinating slate of prominent speakers lined up! Go to bluehill.org to register.

Message issued October 24, 2025 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member