Significant Weather Blog: Tuesday, October 14, 2025 10 AM
NOR’EASTER RECAP AND WEEKLY OUTLOOK
Coastal Storm Recap
The coastal storm stalled off the mid-Atlantic coast will finally begin to move eastward and further offshore today (Tuesday) with gradually drying conditions from west to east this afternoon and evening. In many respects, this will probably be looked upon as an early season moderate but long duration nor’easter that evolved fairly close to model projections at least on the synoptic scale. Two streams of energy (northern stream characterized by a vigorous shortwave trough and southern stream with a weaker upper trough but laden with tropical moisture) phased together. Due to blocking high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes, the storm stalled off the mid-Atlantic coast and produced a long duration of sustained gale force winds with storm force gusts over the coastal waters off much of the United States eastern seaboard. Those winds were driven by the pressure gradient between the high pressure center over southeast Canada and the low pressure center off the mid-Atlantic coast. The system did have some subtropical characteristics but ultimately evolved into more of an extratropical storm like we see during the winter.
Coastal Impact
Although it typically takes some time to assess, the most significant and lasting local impact from this storm will probably be beach erosion, especially over ocean exposed shores of the Cape and Islands as well as portions of the especially vulnerable Rhode Island coast. There were pockets of minor coastal flooding and splashover during the two higher astronomical high tides Sunday afternoon and early Monday evening due to a 1 to 2 foot storm surge and 15+ waves encroaching upon the near shore waters. The persistent wave action (especially long period waves) on top of elevated water levels is what sets the stage for beach erosion.
It turned out that the peak surge of around 2 feet occurred during and a little after the Monday morning high tide, which was considerably lower astronomically. This highlights the importance of timing between waves/storm surge and the higher amplitude astronomical tides. Note that had this storm peaked during the “King Tides” of last week (gravitational pull of the Moon and Sun superimposed on each other), this storm would have had a considerably higher coastal impact. This illustrates why major and destructive coastal flooding occurs infrequently but still must be prepared for as on occasion these ingredients do come together (e.g. Blizzard of ’78, “Perfect Storm” of October 1991, December 1992, February 2013, etc.).
Wind:
Northeast wind gusts peaked between 50 and 55 mph along exposed sections of the Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Block Island coasts and generally 45 to 50 mph along the rest of the Massachusetts and Rhode Island immediate coast. This was enough to cause a few power outages since the leaves were for the most part still on the trees.
Rain:
Widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain fell along and south of the Mass Pike with still higher amounts of 2 to 3 inches across much of Connecticut and Rhode Island. An area of still higher rainfall of 3 to 5 inches with even isolated higher amounts fell across much of the Cape and Plymouth County in southeast Massachusetts. A very preliminary look suggests a couple of factors that contributed to this rainfall maximum. First, a band of embedded convection slowly moved through this area with intense rainfall rates. Second, coastal storms such as this usually are characterized by a strong low level easterly jet. As the nose of that jet moved onto southeast Massachusetts and slowed due to land friction, the moist air tended to “pile-up” or converge (like traffic on a highway suddenly slowing due to stopped or slow-moving traffic ahead). This in turn forced this moist air to rise which further in turn resulted in heavy precipitation. The precipitation (rain or snow) process invariably involves the uplift of moist air, and generally the faster the uplift, the greater the rate of precipitation. This process also helps instigate the coastal fronts of sharp temperature gradients observed in eastern Massachusetts during some of our winter storms.
For the most part, the rain across southern New England was more beneficial than not given the extended period of drier than normal weather experienced the last several months. Of course, the heavier rain did create ponding on area roads and pockets of poor drainage flooding.
Weekly Significant Weather Outlook
As initiated just last week, this blog author will early in the week take a look at any potential significant weather for southern New England that might initiate a series of messages during the week ahead. At this time, no major storms rising to the level meeting blog criteria are anticipated. Nevertheless, there may be a fairly vigorous cold front that could produce downpours and gusty winds sometime in the Sunday night to Monday time frame. This could cause some travel impacts across the Northeast.
Special Note
This blog author will be traveling out of the country October 25 to November 10. No blog messages will be available during this time. Please check local National Weather Service information (weather.gov/box for most of southern New England) for any potential weather hazards.
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About this Blog and Disclaimer
The National Weather Service monitors the weather 24/7 and updates forecasts, watches, and warnings as necessary. For most of southern New England, refer to your local Weather Forecast Office for the latest forecast/warning information at weather.gov/box. For information from other Weather Forecast Offices, go to weather.gov and click on the location of interest on the map. For the latest information on Atlantic basin hurricane activity, access the National Hurricane Center website at nhc.noaa.gov.
A blog is issued when there is a potential risk of hazardous weather to southern New England and serve to provide background information regarding the significant weather with somewhat of an educational slant. In the case of hurricanes, the author will attempt to issue a message when any portion of the United States coastline may be seriously impacted. It’s intended to complement and not serve as an alternative to official forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Readers are urged to check National Weather Service forecasts and warnings for the most timely and updated weather information. This weather message is solely produced by the listed author and does not constitute an official product of the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC).
The frequency of this blog will depend upon the nature of the weather threat and availability of the author. Thus, for the latest information on weather forecasts and warnings, refer to the National Weather Service, which monitors and forecasts the weather 24/7.
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center (BHOSC)
The BHOSC maintains a continuous daily observation record that dates from February 1, 1885 without interruption and provides educational information on weather and climate to area students and the community at large. Your support of BHOSC is much appreciated and enables this nonprofit organization to maintain the long-term climate record at the Blue Hill Observatory (longest continuous record in North America) and provide valuable educational resources on weather and climate via outreach to schools, site visits/tours, webinars, and conferences. For more information on the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center, explore bluehill.org.
Southern New England Weather Conference
If you are reading this message, then you probably have an interest in the weather and/or climate of our region. Consider signing up for the Southern New England Weather Conference to be held Saturday October 25 at the Meditech facility in Canton. There is a fascinating slate of prominent speakers lined up! Go to bluehill.org to register.
Message issued October 14, 2025 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member
