Significant Weather Outlook: Monday, October 6, 2025 10 AM

Weekly Significant Weather Discussion

A significant weather blog may be started late this coming week due to a possible slow moving coastal storm that may impact southern New England late this coming weekend.  As a consequence of the superimposed gravitational pull from both the Moon (including its distance from the Earth) and the Sun, astronomical tides are especially high late this week.  This particularly high “spring tide” is also referred to as a “King Tide.”  The astronomical high tide peaks Wednesday through Friday, but the weekend afternoon high tides remain relatively high.  There is moderate to high confidence of a fairly robust coastal storm developing off the Carolina coast late this week and then drifting slowly north.  There is lower confidence at this time as to how far north the storm gets before weakening and how strong an east or northeast onshore wind will get along the southeast MA coastline.  Factors to consider will be the duration and strength of the onshore flow as well as timing with respect to the times of the highest tides.  Very early indications (subject to change this far out) point to at least a low risk of coastal flooding and significant erosion around the time of the Sunday afternoon October 12 high tide, especially along portions of the Cape and Island shorelines.  If the risk of a significant coastal flood/erosion event should increase, then a series of weather blogs will be started.

As far as the tropics, a tropical depression may form in the central tropical Atlantic mid to late week and intensify into tropical storm Jerry.  Further intensification into a hurricane is possible.  There is even a slight risk (based on some of the intensity models) of the system developing into a major hurricane (Category 3+).  Regardless, this storm like prior ones this season will likely recurve well east of the U.S. mainland.  Other than possibly tracking near Bermuda, potential Jerry will likely be another ocean storm with no direct threat to the U.S. mainland.  There may be, however, a risk of another round of high swells approaching the southeast New England shoreline next week depending upon the eventual track and intensity of this potential tropical cyclone.  Given that there is always a relatively high level of uncertainty over a week out, the development and potential track of this tropical system will continue to be monitored.

Special note:  Beginning today, an outlook for the coming week and potential for significant weather reaching blog criteria will be issued on Mondays.  In this case, there is a possibility of enough of a risk of significant weather to initiate a series of blogs late in the week.  In many/most situations, the Monday outlook will just note that significant weather meeting blog criteria appears unlikely.

Message issued October 6, 2025 by:
Bob Thompson
Retired National Weather Service Meteorologist
Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center Board member